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AFC Championship Weekend: Bengals @ Chiefs


HoosierCat

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Just now, Stripes said:

Already hearing/seeing a chorus of "Bengals are so fucked next week" from neutral fans. Good. Let the team feast on that until Sunday.

Seems people can't remember what happened just 3 weeks ago. Yeah, no recent history to suggest the Bengals have any chance to win at all!

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I could understand if it was something like the Tennessee over KC game from earlier in the season just because it's fair to expect a subpar QB to struggle to replicate a dominant win against a team that good.

But anyone treating the Bengals like they're fucked is underestimating Joe Burrow by default.

Good.

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Joe Burrow vs the Titans:

28/37, 348 yards, 9.4 yards per attempt, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 9 sacks, 93.1 passer rating

Patrick Mahomes vs the Titans (week 7):

20/35, 206 yards, 5.9 yards per attempt, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 4 sacks, 62.3 passer rating

I realize this isn’t a strictly valid comparison, but it does provide some context for what the Bengals faced in Tennessee and how our next opponent’s QB handled it. Mahomes had a few low-efficiency games like that over the first half of the season, and I think it happened to him again in the second half of our first matchup. There’s plenty of tape of him being slowed down.

The Bengals are capable of slowing him down at least to the 28-35 points range. So roast their vulnerable defense and win the shootout with Joe Burrow. This is so attainable. No more taking conservative sacks and kicking field goals in opposing territory. That script isn’t doom against Carr or Tannehill.

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KC is obviously the clear favorite, BUT this is the better match up for the Bengals vs. the Bills.     If you watched any of the All-22 film reviews of Burrow vs. KC (first time); the KC chiefs are not solid in the back half.   Either not coached well or lack of talent.   I think they have some injury issues back there too this week they have to deal with.

I just don't expect the Chiefs D to be able to play the way they have all year.  I expect them to take a page out of trying to get pressure via 4 and play coverage as that is the defensive scheme that is the weakness of our offense,  BUT that's a tough task to do.

Also following 9 sacks the OL is going to have a week of bashing.   Then after the Bills/Chiefs offensive explosion both set of defenses will have a week of disrespect.

This game may not play out the way everyone expects.  Which favors the underdog or undertiger.

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I like the matchup better as well and think our offense against their secondary is where to attack.
If the Chiefs sell out to stop that, I think Mixon and CJ will make them pay.

Either way, I'm all in on the Bengals going into KC and walking out with a win.
The Chiefs and everyone around them think the first matchup was a fluke win by the Bengals.
They are coming off of an overtime shoot out and got a little nicked up during the game.
Everyone is telling them how they are going to beat the heck out of the Bengals.

I'm thinking all of that dims the voice in the back of their head trying to remind them the Bengals did in fact BEAT them.
I also think the Bengals are going to come in there with a vastly improved game plan.

Don't call it an upset.  These boys are coming for it all.

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6 minutes ago, ArmyBengal said:

I like the matchup better as well and think our offense against their secondary is where to attack.
If the Chiefs sell out to stop that, I think Mixon and CJ will make them pay.

Either way, I'm all in on the Bengals going into KC and walking out with a win.
The Chiefs and everyone around them think the first matchup was a fluke win by the Bengals.
They are coming off of an overtime shoot out and got a little nicked up during the game.
Everyone is telling them how they are going to beat the heck out of the Bengals.

I'm thinking all of that dims the voice in the back of their head trying to remind them the Bengals did in fact BEAT them.
I also think the Bengals are going to come in there with a vastly improved game plan.

Don't call it an upset.  These boys are coming for it all.

I think you are dead on.   IF Chiefs choose to rush 4 and play coverage then I think we see a rebirth of Mixon.     I really see our defense feeling disrespected and comes up with a better game than the nation expects with portions of the game being ball controlled by Mixon.    Bengals pull the shocker.

 

 

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2 hours ago, AMPHAR said:

I think you are dead on.   IF Chiefs choose to rush 4 and play coverage then I think we see a rebirth of Mixon.     I really see our defense feeling disrespected and comes up with a better game than the nation expects with portions of the game being ball controlled by Mixon.    Bengals pull the shocker.

This is the winning recipe. Also, I do believe we need to be at least +1 or +2 in the TO margin to win. I don't think an even TO margin this time will do it.

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