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HoosierCat

Week 4: Jaguars @ Bengals

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1 hour ago, TJJackson said:

kinda hard to believe Chase isnt on that list

He’s at 75.8 so probably pretty close. Again tiny sample size issues I’d suspect. 1 rush attempt for -2 yards probably brings his score down, which is frankly silly.

https://www.pff.com/nfl/players/jamarr-chase/84270

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Very nervous about this game, coming after a big win, prime time, short week, defense looks to be short handed, playing a rookie QB.  Everything about this game screams trap. I certainly hope I am wrong but am expecting a Jax win.  

We desperately need to jump on them quickly and take their hope away, Jax appears to be a fragile team get up on them quickly put two early tds on the board and they will crumble.  Let them get early confidence and we are in trouble.

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I feel pretty confident heading into tomorrow.

The offense only ran 42 plays for the whole game against the Steelers, compared to the 77 ran by the Steelers.
Within that, Burrow only tossed the ball 18 times and Mixon also ran the ball 18 times.
That being the case, I don't think the offense will be as tired as the defense and hopefully can sustain some drives tomorrow night.

While the defense may be more tired, that unit is playing pretty well right now and don't strike me as a group that will have a let down.

The whole team just feels like it has a different vibe to me.  While they might go out and stink it up Thursday, I'm not expecting that.
If Melvin was still the coach, I would have called for a Jags win.  You just knew they wouldn't be prepared and would blow it.
I don't feel that way about this team anymore.

Bengals- 27
Jaguars- 14

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I tend to anticipate a low-scoring and close Bengals win, not just because of the "trap" variables, but because I think the Jaguars do some things better than they're given credit for in the running game that can restrict explosive production. Also, Thursday Night Football is generally a bad product that can equalize matchups.

But in the end, Jacksonville has lost 18 games in a row.

Don't lose to that.

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I hope this marks a change in our fortunes but historically this is the exact situation where we fall down.

I listened to the Lapham/McNally podcast (which was excellent for a football nerd like me) and it sounds like they are coming into this game pretty well prepared.  Alot will depend on the health of our starting defensive backfield.

Off topic, I love watching the Manning Monday night show.  Hearing the game through the lens of guys that actually know what they are talking about is great.

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The Manning show is better than the actual broadcast.

There's every reason to think the Bengals will lay an egg. Big emotional win last week? Check. Prime time game? Check. Short week? Check. Key injuries? Check. Rookie QB on the other side? Check. Terrible opponent who hasn't won in 18 games? Check. And on and on. History says the Bengals are gracious hosts who send their guests home with a big fat W.

There's even recent precedent: they just faceplanted in Chicago - a bad team with a rookie QB - a week after a big emotional win against Minny. Same ol' Bengals would be Thursday's least surprising result.

All that said...I think they buck the trends tomorrow night.

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I honestly think some of these trends are overstated, and that memory is clouded by a bias to the negative events. At least during the Marvin era, the Bengals usually handled business against bad teams. There were let downs here and there, but it wasn't a serious recurring disaster. They lost instead to playoff caliber teams, which reasonably are also the teams you face in prime time games more often than not.

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26 minutes ago, Stripes said:

I honestly think some of these trends are overstated, and that memory is clouded by a bias to the negative events. At least during the Marvin era, the Bengals usually handled business against bad teams. There were let downs here and there, but it wasn't a serious recurring disaster. They lost instead to playoff caliber teams, which reasonably are also the teams you face in prime time games more often than not.

I agree with you about the prime time thing. If you look at all of the team's history, they've always had poor results in prime time. It wasn't just a Marvin era thing. And yes, the other thing you notice is that they're playing good teams -- and more often than not that team is the Steelers.

The thing about bad teams though: yes, it was letdowns here and there, but they kind of added up, at least at one time. I remember years (decades now) ago I broke down several seasons during the Palmer era looking at how the Bengals, Steelers and Ravens did against teams that finished the year .500 or better versus those finished under .500. I don't recall the exact numbers, and maybe I'll get bored someday and check a few more recent seasons, but the gist of it was that all three teams had about the same .500-ish winning percentage against good teams, but against bad teams the Steelers and Ravens had like .650-.700-ish winning percentages while the Bengals were still around .500. So yeah, not a recurring disaster, but it was those one or two extra letdowns a year that separated them from the two clubs constantly fighting for control of the division.

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37 minutes ago, Stripes said:

I honestly think some of these trends are overstated, and that memory is clouded by a bias to the negative events. At least during the Marvin era, the Bengals usually handled business against bad teams. There were let downs here and there, but it wasn't a serious recurring disaster. They lost instead to playoff caliber teams, which reasonably are also the teams you face in prime time games more often than not.

Definitely.  I acknowledge that I suffer from Bengals-related  post traumatic stress when we are predicting the fortunes of our favorite team.  In my defense, how can you not after experiencing what we have experienced over the last 3 decades?

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What has it been now? 5 years?
While I don't remember timeframes, the TD throw from AJ McCarron to AJ Green with less than two minutes is something etched into my memory.
That TD gave them the lead and I remember going ape shit crazy in my living room thinking they were finally going to win a playoff game.
Then we all know what happened from there and the subsequent loss they took.

Yeah, those kind of memories...

Again though, this team doesn't strike me the same way those teams did.

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With such a young roster it would be nice to have some of the fresh faces of the Bengals show up big time for a National Audience.   Really helps with hyping the team up.

Win this and its a huge game with the Packers coming in.  (See I would fall victim to the trap game).

 

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Marvin era Bengals were horrible on NBC Sunday Night Football and Playoffs.   They were completely win less.   Preseason, Regular, and Post if it was on NBC Sunday Night Football in American it was a loss.   I think that also extends to Saturday broadcast as well.

Marvin fared slightly better on Monday Night but not great.   In regards to primetime, I'm guessing Thursday was his best prime time slot because those games are pulled from an inventory of what would be regional broadcasts Sunday at 1.

With the small market and fan base, IF the Bengals get pulled into Sunday Night Football its against another top team.

If the Burrow Bengals get flexed on Sunday Night Football it will undoubtedly be another powerhouse team.

Hopefully the Bengals shine big on Thursday and maybe Burrow and company continue to make a name for themselves and they get thrown an easier game in primetime in the future.

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1 hour ago, AMPHAR said:

Marvin era Bengals were horrible on NBC Sunday Night Football and Playoffs.   They were completely win less.   Preseason, Regular, and Post if it was on NBC Sunday Night Football in American it was a loss.   I think that also extends to Saturday broadcast as well.

Marvin fared slightly better on Monday Night but not great.   In regards to primetime, I'm guessing Thursday was his best prime time slot because those games are pulled from an inventory of what would be regional broadcasts Sunday at 1.

With the small market and fan base, IF the Bengals get pulled into Sunday Night Football its against another top team.

If the Burrow Bengals get flexed on Sunday Night Football it will undoubtedly be another powerhouse team.

Hopefully the Bengals shine big on Thursday and maybe Burrow and company continue to make a name for themselves and they get thrown an easier game in primetime in the future.

Yes, to my memory the only road prime time game Marvin won was a Thursday game in Philadelphia. I could be mistaken. Road games against great teams was the usual crap for the Bengals on SNF, so it's not super surprising they sucked.

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22 minutes ago, Stripes said:

Gimme Chidobe too and we'll be more than okay.

Bates fixes alot of holes in our defense, that is a big loss this week 

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