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HoosierCat

Attention all degenerates...

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Place your bets!

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Burrow is favored to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. His odds are set at 5/2 according to Bet Online. Tua Tagovailoa is second at 8/1. 

They set Burrow's over/under for passing yards at 3,800 and passing touchdowns at 24½. They also set the over/under for interceptions at 16½.

The Bengals added another weapon to their arsenal when they selected Tee Higgins with the No. 33 pick in the draft. The former Clemson wide receiver is tied for the ninth-best Offensive Rookie of the Year odds at 22/1.

Linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither has the sixth-highest odds to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year. The Bengals selected the Appalachian State product in the fourth round. Every player ahead of Davis-Gaither was drafted in the first two rounds. 

Former Wyoming linebacker Logan Wilson may offer the best value of any of the Bengals on the list. His odds are 40/1, despite Cincinnati taking him with pick No. 65 and a full round earlier than Davis-Gaither.

Seventh round selection Markus Bailey made the list with 100/1 odds. 

https://www.si.com/nfl/bengals/news/burrow-nfl-offensive-rookie-of-year-favorite

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In looking at the 10 best rookie seasons by an NFL QB:

3800 is a little more than 400 yards more than the average of those seasons.
24 TD's is about 2 more than the average of those seasons.
16 INT's is about 4 more than the average of those seasons.

I would take those numbers, but what really matters is.... where do they lead the team ??
If those numbers lead to the playoffs (and God forbid a win), no one will care about the numbers all that much.
If those number lead to a top 5 pick, everyone will be calling him a bust.

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Dalton put up 20 TDs, 13 INTs, 3,400 yards, and a 58% completion rate in 2011. Just sticking this here for later reference.

 

ADG being so high on that chart is a neat development. I wonder to what extent a less "obvious" option like him is featured prominently to entice those drawn towards foolhardy dark horse bets.

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3 hours ago, Stripes said:

Dalton put up 20 TDs, 13 INTs, 3,400 yards, and a 58% completion rate in 2011. Just sticking this here for later reference.

Just for awareness regarding that comment, Dalton was one of the 10 best rookie seasons for a QB. 

But Cincinnati is a bad place for QB’s right ??

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I’d take the under on that interception number.  I have a hard time envisioning him throwing 17 plus picks.  He’s careful with the ball and pretty accurate.  

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Just read on r/Bengals on Reddit that our OC and Taylor are incorporating parts of Joe Brady’s playbook from LSU. So these prop bets are looking better and better.  

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I would take the over on Mixon.   However he gets dinged and misses a couple games every season it seems.

Health is the key.   

The Bengals added a capable Free Agent upgrade (on paper) at every level of the defense.   Plus attacked the biggest weakness via the draft.   I think the Defense performance improves.

Maybe that bumps up the number of offensive plays AND shifts some of the passing plays to rushes. 

 

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