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HoosierCat

Will There Be a 2020 NFL Season?

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Because I enjoy starting my day off on a dark and depressing note, earlier this morning I read through this thread:

tl;dr (tho I encourage you to read it and reach your own conclusion) we have to maintain the current suppression strategy until a vaccine can be found, manufactured in sufficient quantity and deployed. Which will take something like 18 months. Which would mean at best teams are playing in empty stadiums and at worst no football this year and maybe not next year either.

OTOH I don’t know how we just shut down the country for a year and a half. In which case we probably get football sooner rather than later...but the death toll goes from thousands to millions.

You know, I always used to joke that the minute it looked like the Bengals might actually win something, that’s when the meteor would hit. I’d like to emphasize to the universe at large that that was a joke. A joke.

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I still think the season goes on as usual, but working in a hospital reminds me of just how quickly things can change.
To see things from inside the healthcare system is crazy compared to the rest of the community.

Hoping everyone remains well out there !!!

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I read that too, Hoosier. It was indeed alarming. But the reality is that the world is going to have to find some way to grind back to life before 18 months passes. The world economy is simply not set up to hit "pause" for that long. The White House needs to actually lead WWII style - ramp up building field hospitals - verify that the class of drugs that treat malaria may actually help and fast track mass production - do a WWII style building program of respirators, masks, and other needed hospital equipment and put people to work on those things and then everyone else needs to get back to normal. I don't see any other way that doesn't end in the breakdown of society. 

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23 minutes ago, membengal said:

I read that too, Hoosier. It was indeed alarming. But the reality is that the world is going to have to find some way to grind back to life before 18 months passes. The world economy is simply not set up to hit "pause" for that long. The White House needs to actually lead WWII style - ramp up building field hospitals - verify that the class of drugs that treat malaria may actually help and fast track mass production - do a WWII style building program of respirators, masks, and other needed hospital equipment and put people to work on those things and then everyone else needs to get back to normal. I don't see any other way that doesn't end in the breakdown of society. 

I agree. Only trouble is I don’t trust the current administration to organize a garden party, much less a global pandemic response.

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33 minutes ago, ArmyBengal said:

I still think the season goes on as usual, but working in a hospital reminds me of just how quickly things can change.
To see things from inside the healthcare system is crazy compared to the rest of the community.

Hoping everyone remains well out there !!!

Us? If you’re working in a hospital then take care! 

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Weird that a much more deadly (and also contagious) disease like H1N1 caused none of this panic back in 2009.

They need to stop the swell of spreading first, whether a vaccine is available 6 or 18 months from now shouldn't matter, it's about not overwhelming hospitals/clinics right now - at least it should be.  People are going to die, people are going to get sick, it's just life, I surely hope the state governments lift these business closings by the end of March.  It's absolutely pointless to shut down the entire country like they are doing for a long period of time, and will cause much, much more harm than good.

What they do with nursing homes and hospitals and international travel and large events - maybe those get paused for 2-3 months, but beyond that is insanity over this relatively mild flu.

 

 

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H1N1 had a mortality rate of 0.02%. The current estimate for COVID-19 is 3.4%. If as many people caught C19 as did H1N1, the body count would be over 2 million. And probably a lot higher, since it would swamp the medical resources available.

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31 minutes ago, ShulaSteakhouse said:

Weird that a much more deadly (and also contagious) disease like H1N1 caused none of this panic back in 2009.

They need to stop the swell of spreading first, whether a vaccine is available 6 or 18 months from now shouldn't matter, it's about not overwhelming hospitals/clinics right now - at least it should be.  People are going to die, people are going to get sick, it's just life, I surely hope the state governments lift these business closings by the end of March.  It's absolutely pointless to shut down the entire country like they are doing for a long period of time, and will cause much, much more harm than good.

What they do with nursing homes and hospitals and international travel and large events - maybe those get paused for 2-3 months, but beyond that is insanity over this relatively mild flu.

 

 

They had a vaccine for H1N1. This is a novel virus. It's not remotely the same situation.

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I will readily admit I initially did not give this much thought.

Now understanding the impact of new viruses which no vaccine exists and has a large mortality rate is fucking terrifying.
Not that i'm stressing, but if you read and believe what the experts are saying, the death toll could be astronomical.

Albeit, there are many variables, but this isn't something to be taken lightly.
I go to work every day, because Veterans depend on my doing so and I won't stop.
However, I am concerned about how this moves forward.

 

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22 minutes ago, ArmyBengal said:

I will readily admit I initially did not give this much thought.

Now understanding the impact of new viruses which no vaccine exists and has a large mortality rate is fucking terrifying.
Not that i'm stressing, but if you read and believe what the experts are saying, the death toll could be astronomical.

Albeit, there are many variables, but this isn't something to be taken lightly.
I go to work every day, because Veterans depend on my doing so and I won't stop.
However, I am concerned about how this moves forward.

 

I was pretty unconcerned to start with too. One of these bugs seems to crop up in Asia every couple years and never goes very far, and I figured this was, here we go again. Then it just got worse and worse and now we’re in act 2 of a Hollywood disaster movie. I agree: don’t take it lightly, but don’t panic and keep an eye on things moving ahead.

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8 hours ago, membengal said:

They had a vaccine for H1N1. This is a novel virus. It's not remotely the same situation.

They didn't have it widely available for 9-10 months after it started (sept/oct 2009).  Existing vaccines did not work.  H1N1 was spread the exact same way as CV (droplet-based).   It was just another flu virus that became seasonal like this one probably will.  I think "not remotely the same" is quite a stretch.

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8 hours ago, HoosierCat said:

H1N1 had a mortality rate of 0.02%. The current estimate for COVID-19 is 3.4%. If as many people caught C19 as did H1N1, the body count would be over 2 million. And probably a lot higher, since it would swamp the medical resources available.

H1N1 will kill far more people than CV9 should, the seasonal flu's we have will kill more people every year than CV9.  The death rate so far here in the U.S. is around 1.7%, but unusually bad in Italy, driving the average way up.  I don't care for the way it was communicated or handled (media etc..,), causing panic and overreaction and now government scrambling to provide medical supplies and testing for something we knew about for months.  

 

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Cedric Ogbuehi just signed by the Seahawks.  This is a complete mystery to me.  Dude sucks, he’s as bad as any player I’ve seen, yet he gets a year in Jax and now this.  WTF?

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The funny part about the Ogbuehi signing was part of the article I read:

"The Seahawks have worked on shoring up their offensive line early in free agency"

Really ??  Does "shoring up" mean something different in Seattle ??

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10 hours ago, ShulaSteakhouse said:

H1N1 will kill far more people than CV9 should, the seasonal flu's we have will kill more people every year than CV9.  The death rate so far here in the U.S. is around 1.7%, but unusually bad in Italy, driving the average way up.  I don't care for the way it was communicated or handled (media etc..,), causing panic and overreaction and now government scrambling to provide medical supplies and testing for something we knew about for months.  

Ah, spoken like a true Bengals fan! Our D played great except for that missed tackle by Italy that gave up the winning TD! Things are bad in Italy because they were slow to take it seriously...just like us.

But fine, let’s use 1.7%. If as many Americans catch C19 as did H1N1 — approximately 60.8 million — that’s still more than 1 million body bags. The flu kills 30,000-70,000 each year.

And yes, the panic buying is dumb.

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19 hours ago, membengal said:

They had a vaccine for H1N1. This is a novel virus. It's not remotely the same situation.

They came up with one late in the game going from memory.  I think some countries turned down some of the stockpile because the spread declined.  I could look this up and probably will later but H1N1 was a strand of flu from the 70s.   It effected younger people an older folks were more immune because of this factor the death toll would have been higher probably.

It's not the same situation and no one knows where this will go.    I think we are in the right state, but people using models to project end of NFL season at this stage are dangerously close to crossing over from precaution to fear mongering, IMO.

I think School administrators have the done the right thing in the short term, but declaring no school for the rest of the year seems extreme at this point, IMO.   But they supposedly have the good info.

 

 

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3 hours ago, HoosierCat said:

What becomes of the draft will tell us what to do with the season. 

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A lot of NBA players are testing positive.    It's an interesting development.   Is this virus spread among us already?  Does the frequency of positives in the NBA represent the rest of America? 

This thing could be spread among us already and many people are kicking it to the curb undisturbed.    Also expresses the need to limit contact with people because you could have it and not know it. 

I think 1 guy had it and dropped 39 points that night.  

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Everyone is capable of believing what they like.
However, i'm not of the opinion that this is going anywhere ANYTIME soon.

One look at how the cases have increased over time should be an eye opener.

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1 hour ago, AMPHAR said:

A lot of NBA players are testing positive.    It's an interesting development.   Is this virus spread among us already?  Does the frequency of positives in the NBA represent the rest of America? 

This thing could be spread among us already and many people are kicking it to the curb undisturbed.    Also expresses the need to limit contact with people because you could have it and not know it. 

I think 1 guy had it and dropped 39 points that night.  

Oh, yeah, this virus is in the wild. Has been for weeks now. My guess as to NBA players is that since they travel a lot they’ve had more opportunity to pick it up. I suspect most if not all will be fine since they are uniformly young, healthy men with access to some of the best medical care around.

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Quote

"I'm watching film and doing what I can and playing board games with my kids and doing the best I can," as one offensive coordinator put it to me. "But I am also planning as if we might not be able to do anything besides FaceTime our players for the entire offseason. I'm trying to figure out how much we will be able to teach. I don't think it's out of the question that we don't even have our facilities open by the time training camp would normally start. No one knows how this is going to play out, but I think a lot of people are preparing for the entire offseason to be wiped out."

...

In all likelihood, this spring and summer, that is going to go out the window. We may be looking at three-week training camps for the entire league and then, bam, straight into games. We may be looking at some teams that were more affected by the virus than others. We may be looking at rookie quarterbacks who get almost no spring reps with teammates at all, and time with coaches only over Skype … and if you don't think that will take a toll on certain franchises and individuals then you haven't been paying attention to how all of this comes together.

More at the link: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-uncertainty-amid-coronavirus-experience-will-matter-more-than-ever-as-league-braces-for-big-changes/

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5 hours ago, ArmyBengal said:

Now the stay at home order in Ohio.

We have 5 confirmed cases at work.

Hope everyone stays safe !!

You too my friend. Just found out tonight one of my co-worker’s son (he’s like 8) is sick. Flu and strep negative...sucks beyond words. My best to all.

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