2020 Draft

[ArmyBengal]

It's fun seeing other peoples thought process to what they think the team needs and who they would pick if they were in that mix as GM.

I don't like the back to back OT picks, but that's TJ's thing and does not surprise me in the least.
I would have been more surprised to see him NOT select multiple OT's early.

[TJJackson]

I liked the LSU connection, and Cleveland is a burner, so *shrug*

Are you saying you wanted two WRs? 

Queen seems to be dropping on TDN and Josh Jones (the Houston OT that I was taking at 33 previously) seems to be rising, so in most simulations I can now get Queen at 33 but not Jones

[ArmyBengal]

The only areas I could envision two picks are the linebacking corps and the o-line.
I would be surprised with two of anything else.

[TJJackson]

also are you working directly with covid admittees or just they are in the same building you work in?

[TJJackson]

2 minutes ago, ArmyBengal said:

The only areas I could envision two picks are the linebacking corps and the o-line.
I would be surprised with two of anything else.

so you just wanted a WR a bit earlier and a TE a bit later?

I just figured the immediate familiarity with the LSU teammate TE would help with all the spring workouts and possibly training camp not occurring - and it isnt like the LSU TE is a bad pick at that spot :-)

[ArmyBengal]

I manage a team of providers who are actively triaging and testing COVID patients for potential admission.
With that, I don't typically have direct contact with the patients, but rather with those that do.
Yes, i'm also in the same building.

It could be worse and i'm happy I no longer have that face to face interaction.
Still, it's fairly concerning knowing you are so close to it.

[ArmyBengal]

2 minutes ago, TJJackson said:

so you just wanted a WR a bit earlier and a TE a bit later?

I just figured the immediate familiarity with the LSU teammate TE would help with all the spring workouts and possibly training camp not occurring - and it isnt like the LSU TE is a bad pick at that spot :-)

That was Mem's comment about those two specifically.

[membengal]

I bet duvernay was available when you picked in 5 and I want him 100 times out of 100 ahead of a tight end.

[TJJackson]

57 minutes ago, membengal said:

I bet duvernay was available when you picked in 5 and I want him 100 times out of 100 ahead of a tight end.

I didnt keep a record of the entire draft, but i did just run a new one and grabbed the same positions (though not in every case the same player) in rounds 1 through 4 and yes, Duvernay and his 4.35 speed were still available.   He was rated as the 6th best prospect on the remaining available list at that point, behind 3 other WRS, a TE, and a S

Interestingly though, my original pick - LSU TE Moss -  was gone at pick 122 in the 4th in this run

Yet another simulated run - again, i couldnt get the exact same picks as the original - Duvernay AND Moss were both taken in mid to late round 4

Bottom line though: No way to really tell

 

[ArmyBengal]

I wouldn't have an issue with Duvernay either.  With my son being about everything Texas, we tend to watch a lot of Longhorns games.
One thing with Duvernay that you hear a lot is how he's "hard to tackle". For a guy under 6 foot tall, he's thick as well as fast.
Not to mention the guys just catches everything thrown his way.  Does that mean he HAS to be the pick ??  No, but I wouldn't mind him later on.

I have no basis for why this thought rattles through my head, but I feel like Ross will have a solid year with Burrow throwing him the ball.
I don't buy the lack of arm strength either.  How many plays are ran where the expectation is for the ball to travel 50+ yards in the air ??  Hail Mary's ?? 
He made that amazing scramble against Georgia and while on the run uncorked a pass that travelled 40+ yards in the air on the money for a TD.

I'm thinking the speed guys will appreciate not having to wait on a ball to get to them.

[membengal]

If they have not gotten a receiver in rounds 2-4 and Duvernay is there in 5 they should sprint to the podium to get him.

you know who they have under contract at receiver past this season who is remotely a rotation piece? Boyd and Auden Tate. That’s it. Duverney is 100% a need before yet another TE when they already have Uzomah, Sample, cethan Carter and two others.

[Wraith]

My dream scenario would be:

1. Burrow

33. Queen

65. Isiah Wilson from Georgia

4th. Robert Hunt from Louisiana

5th. Thaddeus Moss

6th.  Tyler Johnson, MN.

7th.  Lamar Jackson, NE

 

 

 

[TJJackson]

15 hours ago, Wraith said:

My dream scenario would be:

7th.  Lamar Jackson, NE

corner is all set via FA.....gimme another linebacker here :-)

[Stripes]

I would not be excited by a TE selection, but I also don't think the Bengals have any good ones on the roster. Sample could develop I guess, but I won't hold my breath. Uzomah is barely decent. Another 2nd rounder would piss me off. 3rd round onward go for it.

[ArmyBengal]

I think it also depends on how you view the contracts recently handed out to the new guys.
Bell and Waynes got 3 year deals.  Everyone else got 1 year deals.

So add Bell and Waynes, while losing Kirkpatrick and Dennard.  Not that I care, but talking numbers.
Along with that WJ3 is an UFA after this season and who knows if they will keep him?

When you consider what I've mentioned a couple of times with the defensive scheme, I would not be surprised to see them add 2 DB's in the draft.
There are far worse approaches then ensuring your DB's are stocked when having 4-5 on the field most of the time.
Can you really have enough talented DB's on a team ??

[ArmyBengal]

I just hit up TDN again and this time ran into the 2nd round with no available linebackers and also saw an OT fall.
While it's not the norm for my approach, I have to admit liking how this one turned out very much.

1. Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
2. Grant Delpit, S, LSU
3. Lucas Niang, OT, TCU
4. Tyler Biadasz, IOL, Wisconsin
5. Devin Duvernay, WR, Texas
6. Justin Strnad, LB, Wake Forest
7. A.J. Green, CB, Oklahoma St.

With no LB's there in 2, I added a first round talent to the secondary.
Niang fell to the top of the 3rd, which I loved and coupled him with an interior lineman in the 4th.
Low and behold there was the guy we were talking about yesterday with Duvernay in the 5th.
Strnad is a coverage linebacker and was reasonable without having to reach, which I avoided doing in the earlier rounds.
A.J. Green, because I really do like his game and all the other CB's are on a 1 year deal.  Practice squad material for depth.

[membengal]

I’ve been passing on Delpit because he duplicates bates and we have other much more pressing needs.

[TJJackson]

There is an NFL rule disallowing two players with the same name on the same team :-)

[HoosierCat]

 

[TJJackson]

Todays effort on TDN

1-1
Joe Burrow, QB LSU

2-33
Austin Jackson, OT USC

3-65
Jordyn Brooks, LB Texas Tech

4-107
Saahdiq Charles, OT LSU

5-147
Devin Duvernay, WR Texas

6-180
Francis Bernard, LB Utah

7-215
Jacob Breeland, TE Oregon

 

[membengal]

TJ - do some reading on Austin Jackson - it is NOT particularly encouraging - the word "SOFT" keeps coming up. Puts me in mind of Ogbuihi. I am passing on him every time at this point.  I would take Ruiz 10 times out of 10 over him at 33 if Ruiz is there (he's a G/C) or look for Isaiah WIlson at top of round 3 maybe...

[TJJackson]

Ruiz is usually (not always) there at 33, as is Queen

I'll take a closer look at Ruiz, but I want a OT at that spot to help protect New Guy

[membengal]

Unless josh Jones falls out of one - and unless you are sold on Ezra Cleveland (I kinda am) - other OTs would be a reach at 33. I really don’t like Austin Jackson there at all, and Isaiah Wilson in third would make me so much happier - he’s a RT coming who could start out inside and move out to T later if need be.

[membengal]

Cards on the table, I just went and looked at a bunch of my saved TDN drafts and here is the range of players I have considered or taken the most often in rounds 2 - 4. Post FA spending spree, I sorted out CBs, S, and IDL from my considerations - after they spent $135 million to shore up those positions I am hoping they are looking WR, OL, and LB in rounds 2-4 in some order. I would be super grumpy over a TE in those rounds. BPA, but targeted BPA given the areas of need remaining would be my hope.

Note, some set of the players I have listed below are unavailable in each given simulation, but sometimes are available - enough that I get to choose from them every so often. Assuming no massive falling from the top 20 players, here is who I am looking at usually for pick 33:

WRs - Mims, Reagor, Higgins ( note - J. Jefferson almost never makes it to 33 on the mocks I do, and I don't really want Shenault)
LBs - Queen, Baun, Murray (altho I admit to being not as high on Murray as some of the experts are and often pass on him for other positions)
OL - Ruiz, Cleveland, Josh Jones (I REALLY don't like Austin Jackson based on some of what I have read and Niang is probably a reach here - Jones doesn't fall to 33 a ton, but just enough that I hold out hope that he's there for them to consider at start of day 2)

That's my big board of preferred players for top of round 2 - unless something crazy happens with one of the top WR or OT falling from top 20.

At top of round 3 I am usually choosing from amongst this crew in the mocks I do on TDN and Fan Speak:

WR: Aiyuk, Peoples-Jones, Pittman Jr. Claypool (Aiyuk could go as high as round 1 or as low as 3 - I would prefer him here - I am not as high on Peoples- Jones and Claypool as others arebut this is where they likely would have to be taken if not already gone)
LB: M. Harrison, W. Gay Jr., J. Brooks, ADG (not a one of these four seems to be sliding to round 4 now, so if you want one of this group, this is the spot)
OL: Isaiah Wilson, Prince Wonogho, R. Hunt, N. Muti, Josh Jackson, D. Lewis, L. Niang, Cushenberry (there's a lot of variability here in the mocks, but some combo of the names on this list will be there in 3 but most often only one or none slips to top of 4 - and any of this crew immediately decidedly upgrades the OL)

And the players generally available around top of round 4 that I like (this got harder when those damn comp picks were assigned and we slipped to pick 107:

WR: Van Jefferson, D. Duverney (often Duverney slips to round 5 in my mocks but I think come draft that is unlikely)
LB: Logan Wilson, T. Dye (MAYBE on each of these guys- very possible to get here and both have already been taken - I would kill for Dye at top of 4 but that is only every so often)
OL: S. Lemieux, S. Kindley, B. Bredesen, J. Simpson, L. Stenberg, B. Bartch (these are all IOL except for Bartch and Bartch may play best there in the NFL)

My general conclusions/working theories from six weeks of running mocks:

If you want an OT to challenge to play this year, has to come from a selection in rounds 2 or 3. IOL is deep enough that you can find someone at top of four (and RARELY 5) who might be able to challenge to start.

As deep as WR is, the true difference making depth at the top of the WR class are gone by middle of round 3 in almost every mock unless you are higher on Van Jefferson than I am. I think he and Duverney could immediately help, but I have them a good tier below the crew I have listed in rounds 2 and 3.

LB is deeper than we thought back in January (at least deeper than I thought) , but still no guarantee that there will be someone there in round 4 that we can count day on 1.

[membengal]

Sorry for how long that was but I realized much of my responses to other people’s mocks were coming from my own unexamined review of what I have sorted this draft into in my head from six weeks of obsession (and three weeks of being in Covid 19 stay at home mode). At least now, for those who read that, you will know where I am coming from.