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Burrow looks good, I’m glad there’s a good one there when we have the first pick.  (Assuming Andy’s going to come through with some of his patented crunch-time picks).

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all you pro-Burrow folks - I know about his 2019 season - talk to me about his 2018 season.

I mean, if we get half the production he had in 2019, I am all for the pick..........but I cant just ignore his 2018 season

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Well, that win dropped our odds of the top pick dramatically.

Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick
CIN 59.8% 97.4%
NYG 23.0% 87.1%
WAS 7.4% 75.3%
MIA 8.5% 68.3%
DET 0.4% 37.4%
ATL 0.6% 37.1%
ARI 0.2% 32.1%
JAX 0.0% 20.1%
NYJ 0.1% 16.7%
DEN 0.0% 13.9%
LAC 0.0% 12.3%
PHI 0.0% 0.9%
TB 0.0% 0.7%
CAR 0.0% 0.6%

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

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17 hours ago, TJJackson said:

all you pro-Burrow folks - I know about his 2019 season - talk to me about his 2018 season.

I mean, if we get half the production he had in 2019, I am all for the pick..........but I cant just ignore his 2018 season

His start to 2018 wasn't great, but he closed 2018 with a vengeance. Then they changed to a new OC this past off-season and he absolutely went nuclear this year. 

Also, in that offense, he's making his own calls at times - rare for a college QB:

https://www.si.com/college/2019/11/26/joe-burrow-lsu-tigers-nfl

Also from that article:

Quote

 

Joe arrived in Baton Rouge three months before the ’18 opener, won the job in preseason camp and then finished the year with a furious four-game stretch, completing 67% of his passes for 291.5 yards a game while throwing 10 touchdowns to one interception. The run convinced Orgeron to speed up his plan to overhaul an archaic, run-heavy offense.

From the first snap of 2019, Burrow has flourished in a new shotgun-based, no-huddle spread system implemented this offseason by Joe Brady, a 30-year-old former Saints assistant. The quarterback has already shattered single-season school records for passing touchdowns (41) and yards (4,014) while throwing just six interceptions. He’s the second-most prolific passer in college football (364.9 yards per game) and the most accurate (78.6%), startling statistics for a QB who last year threw for 2,894 yards and 16 TDs while completing 57.8% of his attempts.

 

His accuracy has been historic. Not just in completions but in completions that maximizes the chances for his receivers to get yards after catch. On the locked on podcast, Jake had a PFF guy on who said they have him 10 points better than anyone has ever been in their grading system on that score.

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And more from that article:

Quote

 

Each Monday at the football facility, he is involved in a film-based exam of the next opponent, a test in which he must identify protection calls he’ll have to make. That means his Sundays are filled with film study. On Mondays and Tuesdays of game week, he meets with Joe Brady and offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger to pitch them his ideas on how to attack the next opponent. He pitches them ideas.

The two coaches trust their quarterback with presnap play calls; he’ll often change receiver routes based on defensive formations. “We might see it better than they do in the box or on the sideline,” Burrow says. “If I see something and want to check a play, I go do it.”

“He’s basically like a co-offensive coordinator,” Herbstreit says. “That’s the NFL model, when you have a quarterback able to invest and communicate at that level. Joe is the cutting edge of that mold. When I watch LSU, it’s not just Joe Brady’s offense—it’s Joe Brady and Joe Burrow’s offense.”

 

 

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I appreciate the input, Mem

Like I said, if he is even half the qb in the NFL as he is at LSU, he'll be worth the pick, but...........I found some additional worries in the text you pasted

"shotgun-based, no-huddle spread system"

I translate this to "college-only system, doesnt take direct snaps from center"

fair?  Not fair?  you tell me.......

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Not fair. The OC who put their offense in came to LSU directly  from the Saints - that’s an NFL style offense he’s running whether under center 100% or not and unless you think Brees is a bad nfl predicate you are just making up things to worry about...

 

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Just being cautious. 

I really do hope you are right about this guy, but I remain pessimistic for all of the already-stated reasons as well as his arm, which I am hearing is average at best

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4 hours ago, TJJackson said:

Just being cautious. 

I really do hope you are right about this guy, but I remain pessimistic for all of the already-stated reasons as well as his arm, which I am hearing is average at best

Above average. Not a gun. Better than what Drew Brees has per the PFF guy I heard recently interviewed on either Dehner's podcast or locked on. Said there are ZERO concerns about arm strength with him.

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Herbert quietly putting up his best season at 31 Td's and 5 INT's, a 160 QB rating, 8+ ypa, 67% comp.   Run-heavy offense, but his peripherals are really solid and consistent.    Better athlete than Burrow (slightly) and more starting experience in college.  I wouldn't count him out of being a top 3 pick just yet.

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the knock I keep hearing on Herbert is lack of consistency. 

It is also evident that he benefits from a strong running game.

not slamming him, not at all, just saying there are some reasons to not get too infatuated with him as well

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On 12/7/2019 at 4:19 PM, TJJackson said:

the knock I keep hearing on Herbert is lack of consistency. 

It is also evident that he benefits from a strong running game.

not slamming him, not at all, just saying there are some reasons to not get too infatuated with him as well

I'm certainly not (infatuated with him).  Just predicting that he will be in the conversation and quite possibly rated just behind Burrow.   If the Bengals' miss out on that #1 pick, he may be a legit option for instance.  

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Burrow, to me, is the obvious pick at QB. His skill set is the best but what separates him is his tenacity, work ethic, and IQ. He has the "it" factor. No question.

 

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Slight improvement this week.

Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick
CIN 62.7% 99.1%
NYG 21.4% 87.0%
WAS 6.9% 81.2%
MIA 8.8% 73.8%
ARI 0.1% 53.0%
DET 0.1% 49.1%

 

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1 hour ago, HoosierCat said:

Slight improvement this week.

Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick
CIN 62.7% 99.1%
NYG 21.4% 87.0%
WAS 6.9% 81.2%
MIA 8.8% 73.8%
ARI 0.1% 53.0%
DET 0.1% 49.1%

 

That .9% chance they fall out of the top 5 is if they can beat the Patriots next week.

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a somewhat more perfect scenario is where we (at 1) convince the Giants (at pick 2, and not needing a qb) that we are perfectly happy with Dalton and are gonna take the Ohio State pass rusher instead.......unless they want to trade us pick 2 plus their 2nd this year or their r1 pick next year for overall pick 1? In such a scenario, we still take the top QB and eat our cake too.

Yeah, I know.....I dont see the Bengals as being smart enough to even conceive of such a thing, much less play it out.......but boy, wouldnt that be nice?

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What if???....So this is completely hypothetical...

Say the Bengals have the first pick in the draft...

I told you that Tua would be available at our selection in Rd. 2....(he is being mocked in the late first early second by most prognosticators) 

Does Chase Young and Tua look better than 

Joe Burrow/Random RT prospect? (Let's stay with Jedrick Willis)

 

Of course there are no guarantees that Tua drops out of the first round and as a result this is purely fantasy because we will be taking Burrow if we get the first pick.  Just looking for opinions here.

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On 12/8/2019 at 8:21 PM, cincyhokie said:

Burrow, to me, is the obvious pick at QB. His skill set is the best but what separates him is his tenacity, work ethic, and IQ. He has the "it" factor. No question.

 

On top of that he is an Ohio Kid (from Athens) so he could be the local hero taking the deadbeat franchise and rising to glory....the stuff movies are made from.

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59 minutes ago, Wraith said:

What if???....So this is completely hypothetical...

Say the Bengals have the first pick in the draft...

I told you that Tua would be available at our selection in Rd. 2....(he is being mocked in the late first early second by most prognosticators) 

Does Chase Young and Tua look better than 

Joe Burrow/Random RT prospect? (Let's stay with Jedrick Willis)

 

Of course there are no guarantees that Tua drops out of the first round and as a result this is purely fantasy because we will be taking Burrow if we get the first pick.  Just looking for opinions here.

If I have the first overall pick AND a crystal ball that tells me Tua will be there for us in the second AND I’m not taking Burrow...then my inclination is to trade the pick. This team has a ton of issues and the FO sure isn’t going to pay to fix them in FA so see if you can get an extra few picks this year and some 2021/22 selections as well.

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Word out of PBS is that teams are inquiring about such a trade, but all phone calls are being ignored because for the last 17 days Mike has been on the phone trying to cancel his DIRECTV subscription.  He’s still working on it.

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