SI Ranks Dalton 20th for 2015

[gregcook68]

Questioning some QBs that ranked ahead of Dalton;

Derek Carr, Tannenhill, Stafford, Flacco, Cutler

[BengalszoneBilly]

Questioning some QBs that ranked ahead of Dalton;

Derek Carr, Tannenhill, Stafford, Flacco, Cutler

Any QB with a playoff win should be ahead of Andy on the list.

[HoosierCat]

Link for those who would like the whole article:

http://mmqb.si.com/2015/07/03/nfl-quarterback-rankings/

[gregcook68]

Questioning some QBs that ranked ahead of Dalton;

Derek Carr, Tannenhill, Stafford, Flacco, Cutler

Any QB with a playoff win should be ahead of Andy on the list.

Have Carr, Stafford, and Tannenhill ever MADE the playoffs, let alone win a game?

[COB]

20th is too high for Andy. He should at least be 21st, Kaepernick should definitely be ahead of Dalton. He's 4-2 in the playoffs, showed up in huge games, and has the better running game and can make throws Andy cannot make. He won an NFC championship game for gosh sakes, Andy barfs trying to eak out a wildcard win.

Kaepernick behind Dalton is a gross injustice, Andy's 21 or lower, I'd move Kap up into the top 16 at least.

[redsbengalsbucks]

You have to take into account the regular season production when ranking QB's. I would guess that Kap's turnovers kill him, compared to Dalton.

I actually think he is a little low, I'd say #17, above Cutler, Carr and Smith.

[gregcook68]

You have to take into account the regular season production when ranking QB's. I would guess that Kap's turnovers kill him, compared to Dalton.

I actually think he is a little low, I'd say #17, above Cutler, Carr and Smith.

Come on fellars!

What about Tannenhill and Stafford?

Matt Stafford has never beaten a team with a winning record on the road. 0-17!!!

[COB]

You have to take into account the regular season production when ranking QB's. I would guess that Kap's turnovers kill him, compared to Dalton.

I actually think he is a little low, I'd say #17, above Cutler, Carr and Smith.

Cutler is way too high on that list, that's for sure. Maybe 22 or 23. That magic arm can only carry you so far.

[HoosierCat]

Meh. Ranking QBs outside of the top and bottom 5-8 guys is pretty much a matter of throwing darts. Is Cutler better than Dalton? Well, Jay's got a better arm, no doubt, but all he's done with it so far is to throw prettier interceptions. Everyone loves Ryan Tannehill, but while you can point to this or that factor where he looks better than Andy, the bottom line is that his resume doesn't hold a candle to Dalton's. Kapernick can lord playoff wins over Andy all day long, but that doesn't change the fact he went to complete poo-poo last season.

Any of these guys, including Andy, are interchangeable with a dozen other guys on any given Sunday.

[princeton]

I'd trade Dalton for Tannehill in a second

[BengalszoneBilly]

Oh man, now Andy getting booed big time at a softball game in Cincy!

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/bengals-qb-andy-dalton-booed-at-mlb-celebrity-softball-game-in-cincinnati-140941523.html

[HoosierCat]

Bengals fans can be real nimrods sometimes...

[COB]

I read that he jacked one out that almost cleared the regular wall, let alone the temporary one they set up for the softball game.

[gregcook68]

I read that he jacked one out that almost cleared the regular wall, let alone the temporary one they set up for the softball game.

Poetic justice. It was a celebrity softball game, not a Bengals pre-season game!

I'd trade Dalton for Tannehill in a second

That's why you aren't an NFL head coach!

[COB]

I'd trade Dalton for Tannehill in a second

So would any NFL head coach. Tannehill is just a much better passer.

NFL head coaches had 7 chances to draft Tannehill and passed, he was taken 8th in his draft. NFL head coaches had 34 chances to draft Dalton and passed, he was taken 35th.

Last year, 2014 season: Dalton - 3,398 total yards

Tannehill - 4,045 total yards

Dalton - 19 tds vs 17 interceptions

Tannehill - 27 tds vs 12 interceptions

Finally, something unique happened to both Dalton and Tannehill in 2014 that lends itself to a very revealing comparison. They both had to work with a new OC, and by definition a new offense, for the first time as a pro.

Dalton, as we all know, pretty much ran Gruden's system at TCU. He was handpicked by Gruden for that offense, and stepped in and ran it for 3 years. Then Gruden leaves and Dalton has a new OC. Hue Jackson changed some things, tried to force the ball out super fast, and basically the thing he did most was not be Jay Gruden. Dalton was forced out of his comfort zone.

Tannehill was also forced out of his comfort zone. Mike Sherman was his OC his first two years. Tannehill, like Dalton, played the same system in college that he played in his first years as a pro. In fact Mike Sherman was his head coach at A&M! So just as Andy is spending his first year under Hue Jackson, Tannehill spends his first year under new OC Bill Lazor.

So both guys lose their hand-picked mate at OC, and have to deal with a new guy.

How did they respond?

Tannehill had easily his best season. He set career highs in passing yards, passing touchdowns, completion percentage, pass attempts, pass completions, passer rating, and rushing yards, as well as a career low mark in interceptions.

Dalton did not have his best season, in fact he went backwards. He tied his career low in passing yards (from his rookie year), set a career low in TDs, had his second most picks ever, and had his second lowest QB rating of his career.

2014 - Dalton QB rating was 83.5. Tannehill QB rating was 92.8.

Ryan Tannehill is just a demonstrably better quarterback. His superior ability as a pure passer got him drafted in the top ten of his class. Then when he had to learn a new playbook and run the offense for a new OC, his performance proved that the draft analysis done on him was correct. He was able to take those superior physical skills and translate them under a new OC.

Andy Dalton's performance under a new OC proved out the draft analysis on him. He is a guy who can do some things well. He is limited in certain areas, but if everything goes right on a given play, he can execute the offense.

Truthfully, 32 out of 32 NFL head coaches would take Ryan Tannehill over Andy Dalton right now.

[gregcook68]

I'd trade Dalton for Tannehill in a second

So would any NFL head coach. Tannehill is just a much better passer.

NFL head coaches had 7 chances to draft Tannehill and passed, he was taken 8th in his draft. NFL head coaches had 34 chances to draft Dalton and passed, he was taken 35th.

Last year, 2014 season: Dalton - 3,398 total yards

Tannehill - 4,045 total yards

Dalton - 19 tds vs 17 interceptions

Tannehill - 27 tds vs 12 interceptions

Finally, something unique happened to both Dalton and Tannehill in 2014 that lends itself to a very revealing comparison. They both had to work with a new OC, and by definition a new offense, for the first time as a pro.

Dalton, as we all know, pretty much ran Gruden's system at TCU. He was handpicked by Gruden for that offense, and stepped in and ran it for 3 years. Then Gruden leaves and Dalton has a new OC. Hue Jackson changed some things, tried to force the ball out super fast, and basically the thing he did most was not be Jay Gruden. Dalton was forced out of his comfort zone.

Tannehill was also forced out of his comfort zone. Mike Sherman was his OC his first two years. Tannehill, like Dalton, played the same system in college that he played in his first years as a pro. In fact Mike Sherman was his head coach at A&M! So just as Andy is spending his first year under Hue Jackson, Tannehill spends his first year under new OC Bill Lazor.

So both guys lose their hand-picked mate at OC, and have to deal with a new guy.

How did they respond?

Tannehill had easily his best season. He set career highs in passing yards, passing touchdowns, completion percentage, pass attempts, pass completions, passer rating, and rushing yards, as well as a career low mark in interceptions.

Dalton did not have his best season, in fact he went backwards. He tied his career low in passing yards (from his rookie year), set a career low in TDs, had his second most picks ever, and had his second lowest QB rating of his career.

2014 - Dalton QB rating was 83.5. Tannehill QB rating was 92.8.

Ryan Tannehill is just a demonstrably better quarterback. His superior ability as a pure passer got him drafted in the top ten of his class. Then when he had to learn a new playbook and run the offense for a new OC, his performance proved that the draft analysis done on him was correct. He was able to take those superior physical skills and translate them under a new OC.

Andy Dalton's performance under a new OC proved out the draft analysis on him. He is a guy who can do some things well. He is limited in certain areas, but if everything goes right on a given play, he can execute the offense.

Truthfully, 32 out of 32 NFL head coaches would take Ryan Tannehill over Andy Dalton right now.

It could be slanted this way:

2014

Dalton - 481 Attempts 64.2% Completions 19 TDs 17 Int

Tannenhill - 590 Attempts 66.4% Completions 27 TDs 12 Int

First 3 years (Tannenhill only has 3 years)

Dalton - 1620 Attempts 61.2% Completions 80 TDs 49 Int Playoffs 0-3 QBR 85.5

Tannenhill - 1662 Attempts 61.9% Completions 63 TDs 42 Int Playoffs 0-0 QBR 84

[COB]

LOL.

I suppose we could hope that an NFL head coach would evaluate a quarterback by throwing out the previous year's performance. NFL head coaches tend to look at the previous season as the season most indicative of a player's future performance. So, basically, all 32 head coaches right now are going to take Tannehill over Dalton. They just aren't going to act like Tannehill wasn't significantly better than Dalton last year.

But if we did find one who was willing to ignore reality and reason, let's hope they aren't into statistical analysis.

Because if they are, they might see the ratings a website called FiveThirtyEight Sports did on playoff quarterbacks. They took the 180 principle quarterbacks from playoff games since 1970, then applied the ELO principle, which is a statistical prediction of how the team should have done in each game the quarterback started. The net result - did the QB lead his team to a better result than the pure statistics would predict, or a lesser result. See below.

Second statistical of Dalton's post season performances: They took a statistically average backup qb, and ran his performance against the QB who actually played the game. How'd the real QB do against the statistically average backup QB? See below.

Andy Dalton over Ryan Tannehill? Nope.

[Passepartout]

It is about winning the playoffs. As Dalton hopefully will do this in 2015.

[gregcook68]

LOL.

I suppose we could hope that an NFL head coach would evaluate a quarterback by throwing out the previous year's performance. NFL head coaches tend to look at the previous season as the season most indicative of a player's future performance. So, basically, all 32 head coaches right now are going to take Tannehill over Dalton. They just aren't going to act like Tannehill wasn't significantly better than Dalton last year.

But if we did find one who was willing to ignore reality and reason, let's hope they aren't into statistical analysis.

Because if they are, they might see the ratings a website called FiveThirtyEight Sports did on playoff quarterbacks. They took the 180 principle quarterbacks from playoff games since 1970, then applied the ELO principle, which is a statistical prediction of how the team should have done in each game the quarterback started. The net result - did the QB lead his team to a better result than the pure statistics would predict, or a lesser result. See below.

Second statistical of Dalton's post season performances: They took a statistically average backup qb, and ran his performance against the QB who actually played the game. How'd the real QB do against the statistically average backup QB? See below.

Andy Dalton over Ryan Tannehill? Nope.

LOL I think the last time you responded to one of my posts you attacked me, but I won't go to that basement. I will however, admit that it had been so long since we dialogued that I forgot I was talking to the smartest football mind in Forumville.

Where's Tannenhill on your lists? Oh wait....that's right, he hasn't lead his team to the playoffs.

Isn't the bottom line winning the championship??

Each year only 12 teams have a chance to win the championship.

Bengals have had a 'chance' to win the championship 4 years in a row.

Dolphins..... not so much.

[gregcook68]

It is about winning the playoffs..

Exactly! Can't win playoff games unless you make the playoffs first.

[princeton]

I was really impressed with the way Tannehill managed the game against Bengals in 2013... all hell broke loose in Miami that week, as Jonathan Martin quit and IIRC Incognito was held out of the game. The Bengals defense was first rate and Fins had no receivers. But Tannehill extended drives and Andy couldn't manage the comeback. I think that with Dalton's weapons, Tannehill would really flourish. There was a point in early 2014 when Tannehill was taking a lot of criticism from his coach, and I was like "swap Andy for him NOW". But Tannehill responded and it's now moot. Fins would never do it.

I'd trade Dalton for Tannehill in a second

That's why you aren't an NFL head coach!

I assure you that I could lose 6 NFL playoff games in a row. I have it in me.

[gregcook68]

I was really impressed with the way Tannehill managed the game against Bengals in 2013... all hell broke loose in Miami that week, as Jonathan Martin quit and IIRC Incognito was held out of the game. The Bengals defense was first rate and Fins had no receivers. But Tannehill extended drives and Andy couldn't manage the comeback. I think that with Dalton's weapons, Tannehill would really flourish. There was a point in early 2014 when Tannehill was taking a lot of criticism from his coach, and I was like "swap Andy for him NOW". But Tannehill responded and it's now moot. Fins would never do it.

I'd trade Dalton for Tannehill in a second

That's why you aren't an NFL head coach!

I assure you that I could lose 6 NFL playoff games in a row. I have it in me.

Gotta MAKE the playoffs first.

Barring injury, Dalton is going to stay, whether we like it or not.

As I said before, it's nice to watch and root for a team that wins more than they lose now. It's also nice to be able to know that from September to January, each week, barring major season ending injuries, they are capable of winning every game they play. Refreshing, after a decade of doormat. We can 'couch coach' all we want, make predictions and give opinions, but in the end, they are going to ride with their decsions and choices, and all we can do is root them along!

Making the playoffs 4 years in a row, in the division they are in, counts for something. Can't win the SB if you don't make the playoffs, and even then it's an up hill battle. Ask Dan Marino. I've heard him say that he'd trade all his records for a ring in a heartbeat!

WHO DEY!!

[HoosierCat]

http://www.finheaven.com/forumdisplay.php?2-Miami-Dolphins-Forum

Best of luck this year, guys!

[COB]

Sorry guys, I forgot to include the link to that statistical ranking of playoff quarterbacks which definitively showed Dalton is not last out of 180 playoff quarterbacks since 1970.

Here it is.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-most-clutch-postseason-quarterback-of-all-time-is-eli-manning/

One interesting note, the average backup quarterback they plugged in was typified by Jim Sorgi, Curtis Painter, or Brock Osweiler. If only!

[gregcook68]

Sorry guys, I forgot to include the link to that statistical ranking of playoff quarterbacks which definitively showed Dalton is not last out of 180 playoff quarterbacks since 1970.

Here it is.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-most-clutch-postseason-quarterback-of-all-time-is-eli-manning/

One interesting note, the average backup quarterback they plugged in was typified by Jim Sorgi, Curtis Painter, or Brock Osweiler. If only!

Eli made some other lists as well!

http://fansided.com/2015/01/28/10-worst-quarterbacks-win-super-bowl/2/

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/story/2008-07-10/the-list-worst-qbs-win-super-bowl

I was looking at a list compiled of the worst QBs to ever 'play' in a SB. It only confirms the old cliche, "Defense wins football games!"