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The Predicted AFCN Finish


gregcook68

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The AFC North title is in our own hands, just gotta take care of business when we can

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Glad I didn't stay up to watch the Titans blow that.

I went to bed with them holding the lead at the end of the 3rd.

Looks like that tie isn't hurting us all that much at this point in time.

The Bengals definitely control their own destiny.

However, if I've done the math right, if the Ravens and Browns win next week, and the Bengals lose in Texas, then they go from first to last and back on life support!!

They need to take the momentum and passion from New Orleans right through the last 6 games.

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With the race in the AFCN being so close, I don't think being in first or last makes that much of a difference at this point.

It's not like there's 3 games separating 1 and 4. If the Bengals beat the teams they should, beat the Browns and at least split with the Steelers, they will be ok. Lose back to back weeks against the Texans and Bucs and it's over in my opinion.

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With the race in the AFCN being so close, I don't think being in first or last makes that much of a difference at this point.

It's not like there's 3 games separating 1 and 4. If the Bengals beat the teams they should, beat the Browns and at least split with the Steelers, they will be ok. Lose back to back weeks against the Texans and Bucs and it's over in my opinion.

First to last may mean missing the WC.

Early reports don't have Burfict playing Sunday. Still early.

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Playing Dalton's career back in your mind, what percentage would you say that Bad Andy shows up?

Along these lines, I was looking at Andy's situational stats for this year and there are certain times when BA has been showing up.

1. Passes 21-30. In his first 20 passes in games this year Dalton has thrown 7 TDs and 3 INTs. But attempts 21-30? 2 TDs, 5 INTs.

2. Own 21-50 yard line. Everywhere else on the field he's thrown 9 TDs and 3 INTs (including 6-0 in the red zone). But between the 21-50 on the Bengals' side of the field it's 2 TDs against 6 INTs (he's also 0/1 inside their own 20).

3. Home games. Andy has 6 TDs and no picks on the road. At home? 5 TDs to 9 INTs.

Looking back, only 2 repeats as a problem in 2013 (2 TDs, 9 INTs, plus 1/4 inside own 20), 2012 (5/11 plus 0/4 inside own 20) and 2011 (0/7 on Bengals side of field, 5/16 outside red zone). So to sum up, 30 of Andy's 58 career picks have been thrown between his own 21 and 50 yard line, and 42 of 58 on his side of the field.

So, my modest suggestion to minimize BA's appearances starts with ball-security-friendly playcalling on their own side of the field, especially between the 21 and 50 yard lines.

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Playing Dalton's career back in your mind, what percentage would you say that Bad Andy shows up?

Along these lines, I was looking at Andy's situational stats for this year and there are certain times when BA has been showing up.

1. Passes 21-30. In his first 20 passes in games this year Dalton has thrown 7 TDs and 3 INTs. But attempts 21-30? 2 TDs, 5 INTs.

2. Own 21-50 yard line. Everywhere else on the field he's thrown 9 TDs and 3 INTs (including 6-0 in the red zone). But between the 21-50 on the Bengals' side of the field it's 2 TDs against 6 INTs (he's also 0/1 inside their own 20).

3. Home games. Andy has 6 TDs and no picks on the road. At home? 5 TDs to 9 INTs.

Looking back, only 2 repeats as a problem in 2013 (2 TDs, 9 INTs, plus 1/4 inside own 20), 2012 (5/11 plus 0/4 inside own 20) and 2011 (0/7 on Bengals side of field, 5/16 outside red zone). So to sum up, 30 of Andy's 58 career picks have been thrown between his own 21 and 50 yard line, and 42 of 58 on his side of the field.

So, my modest suggestion to minimize BA's appearances starts with ball-security-friendly playcalling on their own side of the field, especially between the 21 and 50 yard lines.

Two things seem to come to mind with him and the 'team' as a whole, and I bet their record and success is much higher when the following happen:

1. When they score on their first possession, they all seem to feed off of that.

2. When the running game is on, they all seem to feed off of that.

Not sure if there can be a search for this or not.

I would say these things are probably true on most all teams, that have above average QBs with the knowledge of the game and offense.

I don't think there are very many games, not saying there aren't ANY, but minimal percentages, that can be sited, where he tanks, and tanks all by himself.

His passes are uncatchable, fumbles the ball himself, throws interceptions that should have never been thrown and are definitely his fault, calls audibles that are disastrous, etc.

He plays poorly, but the receivers do not drop balls, run good 'follow through' routes, and the defense plays sound.

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With the race in the AFCN being so close, I don't think being in first or last makes that much of a difference at this point.

It's not like there's 3 games separating 1 and 4. If the Bengals beat the teams they should, beat the Browns and at least split with the Steelers, they will be ok. Lose back to back weeks against the Texans and Bucs and it's over in my opinion.

First to last may mean missing the WC.

Not this week and why I said "at this point", but as I mentioned, if they lose to the Texans and Bucs, it's over.

I just don't see the other teams continuing to lose. Hell, the Steelers should have lost last night, but won.

I expect the winning to continue for AFCN teams.

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Some interesting comments from the Cryptkeeper about how the combined suckage of the AFC and NFC South divisions could leave two or more teams with 10+ wins out of the playoffs.


/>http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11900669/clayton-mailbag-dismal-south-divisions-creating-win-total-anomalies

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Latest playoff projections by FO:


/>http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

They see the most likely AFC results as of today as:

1. New England 12-4

2. Denver 11-5

3. Indianapolis 10-6

4. Baltimore 10-6 (loses h2h w/Indy)

5. (wc) Kansas City 10-6

6. (wc) Pittsburgh 10-6 (could flip depending on outcome of Pitt/KC game)

Bengals (7) left out at 9-6-1. Depending on how they do the next few weeks it could easily come down to the final game in Pittsburgh.

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Depending on how they do the next few weeks it could easily come down to the final game in Pittsburgh.

That's what i've been saying as well. Next few weeks = Bucs, Steelers, and Browns.

That would end the 5 game stretch i've been talking about and if they get there after winning the next three games, that last game would be monsterous.

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I suppose we could look at it that way, but I would also point to the total lack of anything resembling effort against the Colts and Browns.

I won't mention the Patriots game, because there simply isn't a reason to. That team is obviously much better than people thought at that time.

That kick does still get me though.

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  • 2 weeks later...

This week is huge. If Cincy can win, and both Cleveland and the Ravens lose. 9-3-1 with the rest at 7-5 would be almost a lock on the championship. The colts should beat the Browns and with the Ravens losing two big names on the D this week the Dolphins should win also.

That leaves the Bengals to step up and take advantage of the opportunity that this week gives them.

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