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2014 Prediction


gregcook68

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Two odd (to me at least) data points about Dalton in the last couple days. First, Harvey looks at Dalton's performance versus nickel defenses and finds that Andy is actually among the best QBs in the league versus a defense designed to stop the pass. I wouldn't have predicted that. Harvey thinks it's because he has so many weapons to throw to, but it could also be because the Bengals D plays mostly in the nickel these days and so that's what he sees most in practice.

The second is a PFF breakdown of QB performance by quarter. Bottom line, Andy Dalton is among the worst QBs in the league in the first half of games. He's shaky in Q1 and is absolutely horrible, as in third-worst league-wide, in Q2. But after halftime he turns into Crimson Jesus. The split is stark. Again, not something I would have expected, especially his impressive Q4 grade. Another reason, I suppose, to pour a large amount of salt on anything that comes out of PFF.

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Tell me about his grade in Q3 and Q4 of the playoff game vs the Chargers

well, in any playoff game, actually

Well, that's my point. I'm kind of scratching my head at the PFF grades. For example, if you go look at Dalton's stats on profootball-reference.com, he only has five fourth-quarter comebacks on record, none of which happened last year, and PFF's numbers are drawn from 2013. Heck, he's only listed as having 3 game-winning drives last season, and that includes the Detroit game where he threw 2 passes for 15 yards and then Nuge kicked a 54-yarder at the gun. PFF's grades would have you believe Dalton is Mr. Clutch, something no one is claiming.

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On the contract front, Hobs has some more thoughts on Dalton:

When and how much do you think Andy Dalton will sign a new contract? John Mitcheltree, Cape Coral, Fla.

JOHN: The Bengals’ big extensions with their own players are traditionally are done in the last week of the preseason. (See Willie Anderson, Geno Atkins, Andrew Whitworth, Leon Hall.) Some have come on the verge of training camp, a la Carols Dunlap and Levi Jones. I’m expecting something like an Aug. 27 announcement for Dalton and Vontaze Burfict, but what the Red Baron secures, I have no idea.

I don’t think he’s getting the $18.3 million average that Kaepernick got because Kaepernick has gone to the Super Bowl and two NFC title games with a better winning percentage. But Dalton’s stats and accomplishments are worthy of a healthy deal and I bet he ends up with a contract that in some instances is better than Kaepernick’s when it comes down to structure.

Later he adds:

Mike has also been quoted as saying, “You need an accomplished quarterback to win the Super Bowl,” and he’s given whopping deal s to QBs that have accomplished less than Dalton. My sense is he wants to get this deal done before the season because many of the parts are in place and they’ve got a shot to win the big game.

You’re right, if you do it Mike will pay you and that’s why I’m sure the deal Dalton eventually gets will not only have very healthy guarantees, but more escalators than the one Kaepernick signed.

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Some Dalton tweets from Hobs:

Geoff Hobson @GeoffHobsonCin · 27m

Dalton: you obviously want to make sure guys around you can get paid too

Geoff Hobson @GeoffHobsonCin · 32m

Dalton on impact with him: it got done, that's the big thing

Geoff Hobson @GeoffHobsonCin · 32m

Dalton on structure: You want to be able to earn you way.

Geoff Hobson @GeoffHobsonCin · 33m

Dalton on Kaepernick contract:I was happy for him.

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More from Dehner & Harvey:

Paul Dehner Jr. @pauldehnerjr · 8m

OC Jackson on Dalton: "He's taken charge and control. He's more compact, the ball comes out quicker. I'm excited about what the upside is."

Paul Dehner Jr. @pauldehnerjr · 10m

Yes, it's June .Yes, it's ball in shorts. But Andy Dalton looks good. OC Hue Jackson: "He's improved all the way around. I see it."

Coley Harvey @ColeyHarvey · 2h

It's only June, and it was a one-on-one WR-DB drill, but Dalton has had a couple nice deep balls so far to A.J. Green/Marvin Jones #minicamp

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Today on "Days of Andy's Lives" (brought to you by P&G):

-- Marvin, on Sirius this morning, says he's been involved in the negotiations for a new Dalton deal and is sure a deal will get done eventually.

-- NFL.com's Ian Rapoport says the two sides have had several meetings in the last couple weeks and progress is being made. However, nothing is imminent in part because of incompatible travel schedules (I guess Katie has a vacation planed...?)/

-- Also, Rapoport says Dalton is prepared to play out the final year of his contract and is confident he will kick ass because of new OC Hue Jackson. Howver Dalton is also sure a deal will eventually get done.

-- Pouring cold water on everything is Coley Harvey, who says the two sides still don't agree on total money, guaranteed money or structure.

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More from Dehner & Harvey:

Paul Dehner Jr. @pauldehnerjr · 8m

OC Jackson on Dalton: "He's taken charge and control. He's more compact, the ball comes out quicker. I'm excited about what the upside is."

Paul Dehner Jr. @pauldehnerjr · 10m

Yes, it's June .Yes, it's ball in shorts. But Andy Dalton looks good. OC Hue Jackson: "He's improved all the way around. I see it."

Coley Harvey @ColeyHarvey · 2h

It's only June, and it was a one-on-one WR-DB drill, but Dalton has had a couple nice deep balls so far to A.J. Green/Marvin Jones #minicamp

They said this about Andy last summer, ie, he's improved, his hard work shows, etc., etc. Also, Andy last summer waxed poetic about how many weapons they had added, how there would be no excuses, how if they fell short it would be on him, etc., etc. He's holding himself accountable for his utter fail in high stakes games by demanding 18 million a year, so he's good to his word.

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The defense sucked their fair share of donkey balls in the loss to the Chargers as well.

While I certainly can't say as I was ANYWHERE near pleased with the lack of performance on Dalton's part, he wasn't alone in that clusterf*ck.

Who is holding the defense's feet to the fire in what happened in that playoff game ?? No one.

All you hear is how they are a top 5 unit without mention about how sh*tty they played in that playoff game.

Mind you, none of that says Dalton is worth 18 million per year, but fans don't dictate what a team is willing to pay.

I relate it to the draft where people say such and such a player is only a 3rd round talent.

Then some team takes that player in the first. So someone thought he WAS a 1st round talent and took him there.

Players value is determined by what the team thinks of them.

If they cared what I thought, Keiwan Ratliff wouldn't of kept making this team.

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After the playoff game there was plenty of criticism of the team in general. While there wasn't as much directed at the defense, there seemed to be plenty handed off to the O-line, and even AJ Green. Dalton was, of course, thrown in the mix as well. I did read some commentary and hear some talk on radio mentioning the disappearing act the defense has done in their 3 playoff appearances.

Now that the spotlight is on Dalton, the playoff loss is being blown out of proportion because of the contract talks.

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