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2014 Prediction


gregcook68

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His agent would be crazy to agree to that. Get the guaranteed cash

well, to be fair, even an incentive laden deal is gonna have tens of millions in guarenteed money as well

its true they could gamble and win - he could lead us to a winning record, another playoff berth, and let's say he even wins a game or two in the playoffs. If it goes that way, it's Flacco-money time

that said, they could gamble and lose too - he gets a major injury in 2014 behind a line that I dont think is quite as strong this year as last, and in that case, the money train potentially derails for good.

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Hob's take today. He thinks Marvin's comments are a sign a deal is close and has a good laugh at the idea Mike Brown won't pay a QB.

With Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis inferring over the weekend in his interview with Don Banks of SI.com that Jay Cutler’s $18 million per year deal is holding up the Andy Dalton negotiations, where does that put things? Butch Hobson, Framingham, Mass.

BUTCH: With Marv unburdening himself a little bit, that indicates to me the sides are a lot closer than they were a month ago, but not there yet, obviously. Dalton’s been solid but not spectacular and that why’s it’s a Rubik’s Cube of a problem contractually.

Both sides have reasonable arguments for Dalton to get everything from Cutler money to about $12 million per year. In order to compromise, the Bengals have to realize paying a quarterback that is even 0-3 in the postseason has gone through the roof and the meter keeps ticking. Plus, he’s got some nice numbers that deserve to be paid.

And Dalton’s people have to realize he’s been the quarterback of a team led by defense the past three years and there’s a ton of money sitting on the table for a kid scheduled to make $1 million this year. It sounds like they’re headed down the path of compromise and a big reason is going to be how the man in the corner office covets quarterbacks and stability, and not necessarily in that order.

That’s why I had to laugh when NFL.com, in calling Bengals president Mike Brown “intractable,” observed he’s “reluctant to shell out franchise-quarterback money for a signal-caller who has laid three eggs in the past three postseason.”

Heck, Mike Brown is no doubt a big reason the gap has closed. He loves paying quarterbacks. He made Carson Palmer the highest-paid player ever before he even played in a playoff game. And 10 years before that, Brown made Jeff Blake one of the highest paid quarterbacks in 1995 even though he had just 13 NFL starts for a team nowhere near the postseason.

If he’s intractable, it’s not on the subject of quarterbacks and stability. Lewis’ comments and Brown’s philosophy make you think it’s going to get done.

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Good lord.

Yeah, I'm sure that was Mikey's reaction, too. Of course, it all comes down to the details. ESPN is reporting the deal at $110 million, which suggests there's at least $16 million in pie-in-the-sky incentives fluffing things up. And while $61 million guaranteed looks big, it all depends on the meaning of "guaranteed." The up front coin is tiny, per Schefty: a signing bonus of just $12 million. How much of that guaranteed money is for injury only, etc? So I await the breakdown.

ETA per La Canfora on da twitter thing, a lot of the guaranteed money is in "rolling guarantees." Basically this means that it is NOT actually guaranteed now, but each pot becomes guaranteed if he is on the roster on a certain date. Meaning if Kap becomes crap they can cut him and the only dead money they eat is the SB and and rolling guarantees they rolled over.

That's actually a really good idea for Andy.

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Will these teams ever stop making a cluster f*** of the market

As soon as the Fed stops printing billions basically into the banks. Corporations get the dibs on that money and advertising is where it's at. We know where it goes from there.

Not trying to get all political but the rise of TV deals and sports contracts are nothing more than a disproportionate bubble in the economy.

The rich get richer.

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EXACTLY what I have been talking about. QB's are going to get paid if they are considered the teams "franchise QB".

It doesn't matter what the fans think, this is the nature of the beast. Even those of you that drool over Kap, can anyone honestly say he deserves that kind of money ?? No chance in hell. He's hella athletic and makes things happen with his legs, but he's not even that great of a passer.

Top 10 in yards for the season ?? Nope.

Top 10 in TD's for the season ?? Nope.

Top 10 in completion percentage ?? Nope.

Top paid QB in the league ?? Yep.

F*cking nonsense.

If Dalton's agent lets him sign for less than 18-20 million, he should be fired immediately.

Dalton winning even a single playoff game gets him well north of 20 million without thought.

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EXACTLY what I have been talking about. QB's are going to get paid if they are considered the teams "franchise QB".

It doesn't matter what the fans think, this is the nature of the beast. Even those of you that drool over Kap, can anyone honestly say he deserves that kind of money ?? No chance in hell. He's hella athletic and makes things happen with his legs, but he's not even that great of a passer.

Top 10 in yards for the season ?? Nope.

Top 10 in TD's for the season ?? Nope.

Top 10 in completion percentage ?? Nope.

Top paid QB in the league ?? Yep.

F*cking nonsense.

If Dalton's agent lets him sign for less than 18-20 million, he should be fired immediately.

Dalton winning even a single playoff game gets him well north of 20 million without thought.

Yup yup yup. Couldn't have said it better myself.

ETA La Canfora on the Kap deal:

Final note on Kaep: Sides negotiated 15hrs straight (10am-2am). 49ers kew QB would play out rookie deal instead of take under $20M/yr

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Ridiculous. All of it.

Maybe not as much as we think. I just saw a tweet from LaCanfora. After signing his ultra super mega deal, you know what Kap's 2014 cap number is?

$3 million.

That would be the prorated amount of his SB + $1 million salary. Now, I can't imagine that all the remaining guaranteed coin is in rolling bonuses, but it looks like a big win for SF here. This is pay as you go. If he performs, he gets paid, if he doesn't he gets cut and the team is off the hook. Still not enough details but if I am Cincy I am looking very closely at this deal.

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Ridiculous. All of it.

Maybe not as much as we think. I just saw a tweet from LaCanfora. After signing his ultra super mega deal, you know what Kap's 2014 cap number is?

$3 million.

That would be the prorated amount of his SB + $1 million salary. Now, I can't imagine that all the remaining guaranteed coin is in rolling bonuses, but it looks like a big win for SF here. This is pay as you go. If he performs, he gets paid, if he doesn't he gets cut and the team is off the hook. Still not enough details but if I am Cincy I am looking very closely at this deal.

Interesting...

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His contract is loaded with Bell and whistles in all honesty I'd be okay with Dalton having a contract like that by the sound of it

Yup. Here's the details. I think you could argue that Kap got hosed. :o


/>http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/06/05/the-full-kaepernick-contract-details/

Technically, the deal has $61 million guaranteed, even though $6 million of the guaranteed salary could evaporate (more on that later). Either way, only $13.073 million is guaranteed at signing. It comes in the form of a $12.328 million signing bonus, a base salary of $645,000, and a workout bonus of $100,000.

For 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and part of 2018, the base salaries are guaranteed only for injury. On April 1 of each year, the guarantees convert from injury only to fully guaranteed. That gives the 49ers the ability to decide, in any given year, to move on from Kaepernick. And with the deadline for the conversion of the guarantee coming on April 1, the 49ers can squat on his rights until several weeks after the start of free agency, making it harder for him to get paid elsewhere.

The base salary for 2015 is $12.4 million, guaranteed for injury only until April 1, 2015.

For 2016, the base salary is $13.9 million, guaranteed for injury only until April 1, 2016.

For 2017, the base salary is $16.5 million, guaranteed for injury only until April 1, 2017.

For 2018, the base salary is $17 million, $5.2 million of which is guaranteed for injury only until April 1, 2018.

The non-guaranteed base salary for 2019 is $18.8 million, and the non-guaranteed base salary for 2020 is $21 million.

In each year from 2015 through 2020, however, there’s a catch. A big one. The total payout potentially de-escalates by $2 million per year, with up to $12 million potentially going away.

Kaepernick can halt the de-escalation by taking, in any year of the deal, 80 percent of the snaps and if: (1) the 49ers appear in the Super Bowl; or (2) Kaepernick is named a first-team or second-team All-Pro. If he satisfies the requirement in 2014, the full $12 million remains. If he fails in 2014 but succeeds in 2015, $10 million stays. If he does it for the first time in 2016, $8 million remains. If he does it for the first time in 2017, $6 million stays — and so on until 2019, when if he satisfies the requirement that year for the first time $2 million stays in the deal for 2010.

It’s a convoluted way to pump up the base value of the deal artificially, allowing Kaepernick and his agents to claim that the deal is better than it will be, unless he satisfies the requirements to stop the de-escalator this year.

The contract also includes, starting in 2015, a whopping $2 million per year in per-game roster bonuses, an amount that one source characterized as “massive” in comparison to similar deals. It means that, for every game Kaepernick misses due to injury after the 2014 season, he loses $125,000.

Starting in 2015, $400,000 per year is tied to workout bonuses, which adds up to $2.4 million of the base value.

The contract also requires Kaepernick to purchase, with after-tax dollars, a disability policy that pays the 49ers $20 million if he suffers a career-ending injury.

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tl;dr: it's a five-year deal worth about $70 million, or $14 million per year, and which could be as low as five years, $60 million ($12 million a year). He can be cut and the Niners gain cap space as soon as this year.

If I am the Bengals, I copy the contract, write Dalton's name over Kap's, and hand it to him today. This is a freaking bargain.

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If I am the Bengals, I copy the contract, write Dalton's name over Kap's, and hand it to him today. This is a freaking bargain.

I agree - like the option to sidestep for non-performance.

Would Dalton's agent advise him to sign such a contract though or hold out for a more consistent salary level ????

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Yeah, after seeing how it all breaks down, it would be hard to complain about that.

At first report Dalton was probably doing high fives, running around the house yelling, "I'm rich bitch !!!".

Now, he's thinking, D*MNIT !!! Not that a multi-million dollar deal is anything to be upset about, but it's not 120 million.

The option to cut ties at the team's discretion would have to be looked at as a HUGE plus for the Dalton haters if a deal gets done.

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Would Dalton's agent advise him to sign such a contract though or hold out for a more consistent salary level ????

Well, the battle lines are clearer at least. Kap's deal pays him $39 million over the first three years. Cutler's deal pays $54 million over the first three years. Dalton's camp will point to the latter, the Bengals will stick on the former.

ETA and that $39 million could fall as low as $35 million with the de-escalators. The more I look at this deal the more I wonder how drunk Kap's agent was when he told him to sign...

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How does this deal have 60 million guaranteed? It looks to me like the money starting in 2015 is guaranteed against injury only. So they could cut him after this season, they lose the 12 million signing bonus, the pocket change 2014 salary, and that's it? Am I reading this wrong? If I'm not missing something, Kaepernick is guaranteed something way, way, short of 60 million.

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No, you got it right COB. The guarantees, aside from the signing bonus, are all for injury only. Each annual pot does become fully guaranteed on a year to year basis on April 1 of each year. But the only fully guaranteed money right now is th $12 million signing bonus.

Meanwhile, $40 million of the deal is two bogus final years, and another $24 million is tied up in playing time incentives and sucker incentives like making the Super Bowl.

Niners made out.

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