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Solid Work by Joe Goodberry


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I follow Joe very close on cincy jungle and on twitter, his work on the draft is just great!

Brown is who i wanted at number 21, but i doubt that happens now. He would be the most athletic LB on this team, and would put some needed speed to that group. Right now Lamur is the most athletic guy they have.

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I'm really looking forward to the draft this year.

I think we are fortunate that many of our holes are at positions with good depth.

Me too. I just ran into a guy at a neighborhood watering hole two weeks ago and he was glued to the TV at the bar Thursday night watching the Masters. He said "this is my Super Bowl, my March Madness". I told him that I feel the same way about the NFL Draft. I don't study it all that much but have a good idea of the upper echelon guys and the Bengals' needs. Throw in the trades and other related drama and I am locked in for the first two days. I expect that I will be at that same watering hole, perhaps at the same bar stool as my friend, watching the first round this Thursday night.

cheers.gifpepsi.gif

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And the holes are not glaring either.

They had a young team last year and, provided they re-sign the Michelin Man, every position is at least as good as it was last year prior to the draft (and last year they had a harder schedule than this year). So they have the luxury to draft or not to draft whomever they see fit without the pressure of filling XYZ positions. Personally, I would love to see them trade down with Buffalo or someone looking to grab a QB in the late 1st. Grab another 3rd or maybe stockpile some picks for next year. Reaching to grab a Safety or a Running Back in this draft when there are about 7 players with approximately the same grade at these given positions does not make good draft sense.

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When I get home, I will make sure the wife and kids are good...

As in, confined to another room with instructions to interrupt you for NO reason, under penalty of death?

Well, by that point in the evening the kids are usually in bed or close and the Mrs. is about there as well.

She already knows it's draft day and is use to my habit by now.

This year will be the first draft in over 7 years I won't be here for each and every pick.

Everything will still be ready to go though !!!

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When I get home, I will make sure the wife and kids are good...

As in, confined to another room with instructions to interrupt you for NO reason, under penalty of death?

Well, by that point in the evening the kids are usually in bed or close and the Mrs. is about there as well.

She already knows it's draft day and is use to my habit by now.

This year will be the first draft in over 7 years I won't be here for each and every pick.

Everything will still be ready to go though !!!

Before we had a kid, my wife went out of town every year at draft time. It was awesome. I could sit on the couch and not move for 3 days while consuming large quantities of whatever I wanted and being as messy and loud (a.k.a. obnoxious) as I could be.

I suppose the kid is a worthwhile tradeoff tongue.gif

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Everyone loves the draft. Everybody's team gets a bunch of guys who the Kipers and McShays build up into future hall of famers. We're all going to the Super Bowl. Everyone loves hope. Heck, for many years the draft was the high water mark for Bengals fandom: this time, we really were going to get to kick that football!

It's all illusion, of course. Heaps of alleged studs turn out to be anything from busts to average on a good day. And half the ones who actually live up to their billing turn out to be divas, headcases, addicts etc. But until the rubber actually meets the road we can still dream of that perfect draft. From time to time, it even happens.

And now we come to the elephant in the room, which I hinted at in last week's piece, and have downright ignored so far today despite it showing up on the positive side of all three top 10 lists: The 1971 and 1972 Cincinnati Bengals. At first, when I saw this result, I was apprehensive. There had to be a glitch in the system somewhere. Then I remembered that the Bengals of the early 1970s were in the same division as the dynastic Steelers, and also had to compete with mini-dynasties in Miami and Oakland. Basically, the Bengals were just the first in a long line of post-merger franchises whose only affliction was horrible timing. Until this past season, the modern-day Ravens may as well have been a direct descendent.

In five seasons from 1972 to 1976, the Bengals went 46-24, but only made the playoffs twice. In 1973, they got in after a 10-4 regular season, but a Week 5 loss to the Steelers in Pittsburgh meant they didn't win the division, and therefore had to travel to Miami to play the defending- and soon-to-be-repeating champs. In 1975, they went 11-3, but had to play their first playoff game in Oakland because Pittsburgh went 12-2. In 1976, they missed the playoffs at 10-4 because -- here's a surprise! -- the Steelers won their head-to-head tiebreaker by virtue of a regular season win ... in Pittsburgh.

That kind of weird wild stuff ca. 1972 shouldn't take away from the Bengals' draft classes, however. Of their 15 picks in the top 222, 10 produced at least +2.0 VAE. There's obviously Ken Anderson (No. 67 in 1971), who is to statheads what Mick Tingelhoff is to Peter King: the "he" in "How the hell is he not in the Hall of Fame?"

But there's also Tommy Casanova (No. 29 in 1972), who was a six-year starter at safety, returned punts, made the Pro Bowl three times, and was voted first-team All-Pro in 1976. His +6.1 VAE ranks as the 23rd-best individual pick since the merger. Stan Walters (No. 210 in 1972) started at tackle for three years until getting traded to Philadelphia in 1976, where he subsequently made the Pro Bowl in back-to-back seasons (+5.6 VAE). Fred Willis (No. 93 in 1971) was Cincinnati's starting fullback (+4.2 VAE) until being traded to the Houston Oilers for Charlie Joiner in 1972; and of course, Joiner went on to join the Hall of Fame thanks to what he did with the Chargers, not the Bengals.

I could go on, but one final high-VAE pick worth mentioning was strong safety Neal Craig (No. 171 in 1971), whose career in Cincinnati was progressing nicely until the combination of ownership revenge and depth-chart dynamics found him banished to Buffalo in 1974. And in true Bengals fashion, the emerging backup who replaced Craig, Lyle Blackwood, was himself traded to the Baltimore Colts in 1977, where he proceeded to lead the NFL in interceptions his first year there.

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/>https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0As8_tcYGCppndG9kSXBqeHJDWDNWY3JJNGVqVmZESlE&f=true&noheader=true&gid=4

Good stuff. Agree or disagree he put in the work.

I like reading that, though I couldn't read the whole thing. Why is this Goodberry character getting so much love here, but so much hate over at another Bengals board I read sometimes but don't post on? (Ending sentence with preposition because I just don't care anymore)

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Blackwood was picked up by the Seahawks as part of the veteran draft that year. Not sure why or how he left there and ended up with the Colts after that.

The key was obviously the departure of Paul Brown after the 1975 season. Mike Reid left at some point to pursue his musical career which was another serious blow to that team.

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Mike Reid left at some point to pursue his musical career which was another serious blow to that team.

And to my ears. "Stranger In My House," which he wrote for Ronnie Milsap, is about as milquetoast a country song as ever came out of Nashville. I just don't think country was where Mike Reid belonged. He's a composer, a real composer with real talent. He's written all sorts of musicals and high-brow crap like that. I'm smart because I can type "Mike Reid" into Wikipedia. Oh yea, the draft.

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Mike Reid left at some point to pursue his musical career which was another serious blow to that team.

And to my ears. "Stranger In My House," which he wrote for Ronnie Milsap, is about as milquetoast a country song as ever came out of Nashville. I just don't think country was where Mike Reid belonged. He's a composer, a real composer with real talent. He's written all sorts of musicals and high-brow crap like that. I'm smart because I can type "Mike Reid" into Wikipedia. Oh yea, the draft.

LOL...gotta love the internet!

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I like reading that, though I couldn't read the whole thing. Why is this Goodberry character getting so much love here, but so much hate over at another Bengals board I read sometimes but don't post on? (Ending sentence with preposition because I just don't care anymore)

I've worked with Joe over at CJ and came to respect his opinions on the draft. He's as much a draft geek as they come; his inspiration is the late Jerry Jones and his Drugstore List. I don't doubt he's as fallible as any draftnik, but in my experience he's watching the film and coming to his own conclusions. And I think anyone who puts in the time he does on the draft is worth listening to, even if you ultimately don't agree with him.

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Anyone who says they "know" what is going to happen in the draft particularly THIS draft is just delusional. Those of us who are fans of moribund teams dream of the draft that will propel our forsaken franchises out of NFL obscurity and into the lime light, the hope is that ESPN will stop talking about the Jets, Giants, Cowboys, Patriots, Steelers, and Redskins for 5 seconds and acknowledge our teams' existence. Of course, what ESPN discusses is based solely off Q Ratings and they could give a rat's fart what the average team's fans want. Teams like the Bengals could go 19-0 and win the Super Bowl 55-0 and ESPN would still not talk about us because there simply aren't enough Bengals fans to move the meter...i digress.

We are all addicted to the draft because it has been traditionally our one shining hope...of course it is an illusion...but what about football or in particular football fandom is rational? EVERYTHING about the NFL is irrational. Most of the players don't care who they play for as long as they can cash a paycheck, most of the owners care more about marketing and valuation than money, most of the talkshow hosts we listen to care only enough about the teams they discuss so they can fill a 4 hour block without working too hard, and most fans are idiots. Trying to create rationality out of the irrational is an exercise in futility, so just like hollywood movies, we should treat the NFL like what it is, a 3 hour weekly soapopera that provides us an escape from our real lives with late mortgage payments, upset bosses, whiny kids, etc. But, of course, we can't because that would destroy the illusion that is necessary for the NFL to function as an escape. So, we again, year after year, buy into all the irrationality and obsess over things like the NFL Draft like it really means something.

God, Thursday can't come fast enough.

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