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Aroldis Chapman broke FIP


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Yeah, I had to read the article to understand what the hell they were talking about, but evidently it's some new stat that the Reds pitcher rendered null and void...

072712-aroldis-chapman.jpg

From CBS Sports.

For those who don't know, FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching, a stat that attempts to measure pitchers by looking at those things a pitch can control -- strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches and home runs. And then there's xFIP, which takes those numbers and neutralizes the ballpark effect.

So, that's the short version -- and here's the fun outlier, Chapman's FIP for July is -0.99 -- that's right, that little mark in front of what would be an impressive FIP means it's silly good. (His xFIP is a slightly less -- but still completely certifiable -- crazy -0.73.) I'd seen this somewhere and looked it up myself -- it's true. And to try to figure out what that meant, I emailed one of the smartest baseball stat folks I know (and who will return my emails), Dave Cameron of FanGraphs.com. Here's what he had to say about it.

Basically, he's been so good he broke the formula. Obviously, it's not possible for a pitcher to have an ERA lower than 0, so a negative FIP just means that based on his walk rate, strikeout rate and home run rate, the formula expects him to have given up zero runs this month.

What does the real world think about this theory? Chapman's appeared in 12 games this month, throwing 11 1/3 innings and allowed no runs. So it works!

To be fair last month wasn't so stellar, but he's getting the job done now, and that's what counts.

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