The AFC playoff picture

[Ickey44]

If the Bengals and Chargers both finish 11-5 (however unlikely), how would the Bengals get the second seed? Isn't the first tie-breaker head to head?

[membengal]

Not if there is a three way tie to break. IF the pats/bengals/chargers were ALL 11-5, that is how they could still be a two. Damn remote, but there it is.

[Ickey44]

I see. Well, I guess either way it's not likely to happen so I'm not worried about it. As long as they win this week we'll be good to go.

[johnswahoo]

It could very well end up with 3 AFC North teams in the playoffs.

The main reason I don't want to see Pittsburgh in Cincy? I don't wan to watch the replay of Palmer's knee 1 million times in the pre game coverage for the week.

I have said this for the past few years but the AFC North---including Cleveland in this senario----is the toughest in all of football....for what ever reason the national media is in love with the NFC East and NFC North-----But if you look at the teams who have wond the Super Bowl since 1997 only Green Bay and the Giants have one a Super Bowl. GB 97 and NYG 07----other than that they haven't only two others have made it two the Super Bowl Eagles and Bears....Both Pittsburgh and Ravens have won a Super Bowl since 01---

Just watch over the next few weeks you will hear the hype on NFC East teams and North teams.....This is why I hope that all three AFC North teams make it...it will just show how strong the division is and how much the media pundant don't know anything...

[cincyhokie]

Not if there is a three way tie to break. IF the pats/bengals/chargers were ALL 11-5, that is how they could still be a two. Damn remote, but there it is.

It's very remote. Here's how it breaks down.

The Bengals still have a chance to get the number 2 seed but they may have a better chance being struck by lightning in December.

AFC Number 2 Seed Tiebreaker Procedure

There is a possibility that the Chargers, Bengals, and Patriots can be tied at 11-5 at the end of the season. If that is the case, there may be an interesting scenario where the Tiebreaker will go to its deepest point ever.

Bottom line: If the Chargers win OR tie one of the next two games, they get the Number 2 seed with the bye week by having the 2nd best record in the AFC.

In addition, if only the Chargers lose the next two, the Bengals win the next two, and NE does NOT win their next two, then the Chargers and the Bengals will be tied and undergo the tiebreaker.

First, the tiebreakers:

Head-to-head, if applicable.

Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

Strength of victory.

Strength of schedule.

Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

Best net points in conference games.

Best net points in all games.

Best net touchdowns in all games.

Coin Toss.

Since the Chargers beat the Bengals head to head, SD gets the 2-spot by Tiebreaker #1.

Finally, assume SD loses the next 2, and NE and CIN both win the next 2.

Start with #1:

Season record:

SD: 11-5

CIN: 11-5

NE: 11-5

The tiebreaker rules madate we go step-by-step from the top:

#1 HEAD TO HEAD: Each team would have to play each other for the this tiebreaker to be considered. Since SD did not play NE this year, this eliminates this tiebreaker for the 3-way. Go to #2.

#2 Best Conference record:

SD: 8-4

CIN: 8-4

NE: 8-4

3-way tie, go to #3.

#3 Common opponents, MINIMUM 4 GAMES.

SD: Ravens 0-1, Broncos 1-1; Total 1-2 (3 games)

NE: Ravens 1-0, Broncos 0-1; Total 1-1 (2 games)

CIN: Ravens 2-0, Broncos 1-1; Total 2-1 (2 games)

Did not play minimum 4 games to meet Tiebreaker standards, not applicable. Go to #4.

#4 Strength of Victory

The Strength of Victory is the combined won-loss record of all opponents of each team. They only count each team once, so there will be twelve opponents that each team will have to calculate for (division opponents are only counted once, even though they play them twice). In addition, it is not really feasible to figure out possibilities because with every win or loss by one of the twelve opponents, it can affect the calculation. We are talking of millions of possibilities here.

I suppose I can figure out the minimum and maximum range possibilities, but that is way too involved without setting this up with a program. Tiebreaker 4 cannot really be effectively predicted until the last week in any case, unless there are serious discrepencies in team strengths. For now, it's not really something to worry about.

This will be the tiebreaker to consider to determine the loser of the 3-way tie. Keep in mind that once a team is dropped out, the remaining teams all start at Tiebreaker 1 again.

[BengalPimp]

I will play ANYBODY.....ANYTIME.....ANYWHERE....If the Bengals are the best team, they will beat anybody. I don't care about their matchup, and who they play. If you guys want them to play the worst team in the 1st Rd, and they win, what happens when they play a tough team after that?

Obviously, i want the Bengals to win it all, but i have faith in them, and believe they can do it against anybody....I'm not hoping they play some "cupcake". So, Who the hell cares.....right?

[derekshank]

I will play ANYBODY.....ANYTIME.....ANYWHERE....If the Bengals are the best team, they will beat anybody. I don't care about their matchup, and who they play.

That's just the thing though. Being the "best team" in any given year doesn't necessarily mean that you won the Super Bowl. Cowher admitted that the '05 Steelers weren't the best team that year, but they peaked at the right time. He even said he felt the '04 Steelers were superior to the '05 version.

Winning the Super Bowl in recent years often comes down to having the good fortune of playing teams that can't take advantage of whatever weaknesses your team has. The Bengals are clearly a team with weaknesses. The desire to face a team that doesn't excel in those areas where the Bengals are weak isn't a lack of faith in the team. It's merely an understanding that some roads to the Super Bowl favor the Bengals more than others.

[jjakq27]

The loss by the Titans last night drops them to 7-8 and eliminates them from Wild Card contention and while SD clinches a first round bye.

http://www.nfl.com/s...G&split=Overall

Friday 12/25

San Diego 42 (12-3) - Tennessee 17 (7-8)

Sunday 12/27

Jacksonville (7-7) at New England (9-5) 1:00 pm

Baltimore (8-6) at Pittsburgh (7-7) 1:00 pm

Houston (7-7) at Miami (7-7) 1:00 pm

NY Jets (7-7) at Indianapolis (14-0) 4:15 pm

Denver (8-6) at Philadelphia (10-4) 4:15 pm

[cincyhokie]

If we beat the NY Jets next week, the Bengals will play either the Broncos, Steelers, Ravens, or Texans in the first round of the playoffs as a #4 seed.

If the Bengals lose next week to the NY Jets, the Bengals will play...the Jets. It's that simple.

Let that sink in for a bit.

[kedgey]

I would take playing the jets in a heartbeat in the play offs.

to be honest the only one would be desperate to avoid is the texans who have done real numbers on us in recent seasons ( and this one)

[BengalPimp]

I would take playing the jets in a heartbeat in the play offs.

to be honest the only one would be desperate to avoid is the texans who have done real numbers on us in recent seasons ( and this one)

I agree. I would much rather face the Jets, and am a bit concerned having to possibly play Houston.....But, Houston has to beat New England next week...I just hope they dont rest their starters, but considering they won't have much to gain with a win, they probably will.

[membengal]

Let's get this out of the way.

I would sit Carson, Ced, CJ, and anyone remotely banged up. Period. And I don't scheme. And I don't show them anything.

I want this team healthy for the playoffs.

[dewaynesworld63]

I would take playing the jets in a heartbeat in the play offs.to be honest the only one would be desperate to avoid is the texans who have done real numbers on us in recent seasons ( and this one)

(Smiling)...I will comment on this later in the week. For the moment, I will say congrats on winning the division and I will wait to see what Lewis' plan is regarding resting the starters.

[cincyhokie]

Let's get this out of the way.

I would sit Carson, Ced, CJ, and anyone remotely banged up. Period. And I don't scheme. And I don't show them anything.

I want this team healthy for the playoffs.

This may be the only scenario that I would feel comfortable doing this. Show the Jets nothing and get the best they got trying to get in the playoffs. It really sets up in our advantage.

The only thing that worries me with playing a team like the Jets and not Pitt or Denver is this teams habitually poor performance against average or less teams.

[derekshank]

I don't want an AFC North team. Nothing but bad can come from it. If the Bengals win, they prove nothing they haven't already proven. If they lose, the 6-0 in the division means nothing.

NE will get the #3 seed if they win next week. They play Houston in Houston, so that's no gimmie... so take that for what it's worth. So the Bengals do technically still have something to play for.

That said... the Bengals could go with a very vanilla gameplan against the Jets while they play for their playoff lives. That would arguably put Cincinnati at an advantage facing them the very next week in Cincinnati. The Bengals would know exactly what to expect from the Jets, and they would not know what to expect from Cincy. You never lose on purpose... but it's an interesting thought.

[cincyhokie]

Here's a funny scenario that they are talking about. Every wildcard game could be a rematch from the week before.

/>http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...-card-weekend/

Cowboys/Eagles

Jets/Bengals

Texans/Patriots

Packers/Cardinals

[kedgey]

I would take playing the jets in a heartbeat in the play offs.to be honest the only one would be desperate to avoid is the texans who have done real numbers on us in recent seasons ( and this one)

(Smiling)...I will comment on this later in the week. For the moment, I will say congrats on winning the division and I will wait to see what Lewis' plan is regarding resting the starters.

Revis, that was not mean't to be insulting to your team who are a good solid defensive unit (and Thomas jones who I stole in the fantasy draft I had in the 6th round) but it's more a matchup thing. We match up to the jets far better than we match up to say the texans.

Also, we are 4-0 on the stealers/ravens and my pragmatic side says that run can't continue versus divsionnal opponents that are expereienced in play off games.

[dewaynesworld63]

I would take playing the jets in a heartbeat in the play offs.to be honest the only one would be desperate to avoid is the texans who have done real numbers on us in recent seasons ( and this one)

(Smiling)...I will comment on this later in the week. For the moment, I will say congrats on winning the division and I will wait to see what Lewis' plan is regarding resting the starters.

Revis, that was not mean't to be insulting to your team who are a good solid defensive unit (and Thomas jones who I stole in the fantasy draft I had in the 6th round) but it's more a matchup thing. We match up to the jets far better than we match up to say the texans.

Also, we are 4-0 on the stealers/ravens and my pragmatic side says that run can't continue versus divsionnal opponents that are expereienced in play off games.

No offense was taken. Actually, Cincy and the Jets play a very similar brand of football. I can assure you that most Jet fans, myself included, would rather see them travel to Cincy in the Wild Card round than the AFC East playground bully in Foxboro. However, even if the Bengals rest their starters on Sunday, the SOJ (Same ol' Jets) could invent a new way to lose. Even for the Jets, they have been remarkably creative this season in that fashion.

[print]

Seems like resting starters - is on the top of everyones minds which is why the Jets are even in the playoffs. I hope the Bengals play the Jets and put them out as they should never have been there anyway.

/>http://www.artfire.com/modules.php?name=Shop&op=listing&product_id=918721

[BengalsMan3203]

As of right now, will all games being played. The Bengals would match up with the Denver Broncos for the 1st round of the playoffs.

Again, thats of course if the season ended today.

[membengal]

Completely wrong.

The Broncos now need help.

Jets are the 5 and Ravens the 6. If each wins, that's how it stays heading into the playoffs.

[jjakq27]

According to NFL.com the Pats are third and the Bengals are still fourth even though we both are 7-4 in the conference. The Broncos are 8-7 and are fifth while the Jets are also 8-7 and sixth with both having a 6-5 record in the AFC.

The rest are as follows:

7. Baltimore (8-7) (6-5 AFC) (3-3 Div.)

8. Houston (8-7) (5-6 AFC) (1-5 Div.)

9. Pittsburgh (8-7) (5-6 AFC) (2-4 Div.)

10. Miami (7-8) (5-6 AFC) (4-2 Div.)

11. Jacksonville (7-8) (6-5 AFC) (3-3 Div.)

http://www.nfl.com/n...ts&confirm=true

[COB]

I doubt anyone here believes our team can turn it on and off at will. So why anyone would suggest a strategy that requires that is baffling to me.

Sure, it would be great to play the Jets in the first round. But at what cost? We have to half lay down, then we stagger into the playoffs having lost 3 of 4, including one to our round 1 opponent?

No thanks.

Go all out, beat the jets, then bring on Denver or whoever. I like the Bengals going into the playoffs on a little bit of a roll.

[kingwilly]

Let's get this out of the way.

I would sit Carson, Ced, CJ, and anyone remotely banged up. Period. And I don't scheme. And I don't show them anything.

I want this team healthy for the playoffs.

This may be the only scenario that I would feel comfortable doing this. Show the Jets nothing and get the best they got trying to get in the playoffs. It really sets up in our advantage.

The only thing that worries me with playing a team like the Jets and not Pitt or Denver is this teams habitually poor performance against average or less teams.

This is the week for LJ, Simpson, Quan and JT to get the majority of the snaps.

With Rey on IR, would they bring up Purify and get him going again? I hope.

winning at NY is not as imporant as being ready for WHOEVER come to Cincy the next week, opponent be damned. I simply don't care. I think this team wins and plays the next week. There, who knows, but against BAL, PIT, NYJ, DEN, this team can prevail.

[derekshank]

I for one will take great pleasure in the fact the Steeler fans across the world will be cheering their asses off for the Bengals to win.

I would take nearly as much pleasure in having Steeler fans watch their team win its last 3 games, giving them hope for the playoffs, only to have those hopes dashed in a tiebreaker because the Bengals chose to rest their starters. That'd be a nice "f**k you" for them, no?