Don's Crystal Ball Week 5 Picks

[thedon]

THE DON'S

Crystal Ball

2009 SEASON

WEEK 5 PICKS

By DonCanabis/D'BOYZ

Analyst/Godfather

Well another week has gone bye and even if predicting games straight up has become a lot easier the spreads have gone a little crazy teams are winning by big margins and lines of -9 or more which used to tell you to go for the underdog most of the times now it looks like normal lines. The NFL used to be a league that games ended by close margins at least since Free agency started but with all the rules changes to help the offenses it looks like this changes have finally caught up with NFL parity. So because of these changes I decide to do more research and change my approach to this week’s picks.

Ok some Quick Hits from last week.

•From the past 4 weeks teams with at least a -7 spread have gone 13-7 that’s if you go for the favorite team in this case you’ll get it right 65%.Last week of the 7 games with a spread -7 or higher went 6-1. That means that 1 Vegas it’s putting bigger lines and still teams are covering them.

•When a good team has gone against a bad team with a -7 spread or higher the better teams have won 11-1; that’s 92%, but when the matchups are bad or the teams are similar in talent (good or bad) the record is 2-6. So pick the bad matchups a Pit vs Det for instance.

•When the line has been -10 or higher the record is 5-2. This tells us that we shouldn’t be scared of double digits lines if the matchup is good for the favorite team.

•Some other good stats to take a look is that Home teams have beat the spread (either in favor or against) 51% of the times with a 32-30 record but from the past 2 weeks since Vegas has had a better feel of the teams and what lines too put Home teams have beat the spread 66% of the time with a 20-10 record.

•Last one Favorite teams have beat the spread 56% of the time this season with a 35-27 record but also for the past two weeks they have won 66% of the time with also a 20-10 record

On to the games

Cincinnati at Baltimore -8.5 Ovr/Und 42

Ok Baltimore’s defense hasn’t looked like the old days but Cincinnati’s defense looks really good. Cincinnati has been one of the two surprises this year I expected them to do good but after the week 1 loss to Denver which I expected to do bad I lost a little faith but since that not only they’ve stepped up but we have seen Denver is doing good to.

Straight: Bal

Spread:Cin

Ovr/Und: Ovr

Minnesota at St Louis 10 Ovr/Und 41

The Vikings is playing great in all fronts even 60 year old Favre is playing good. The defense is not only stopping everybody they’re getting the ball back and putting points. If you find anything good to say about the Rams please let me know. Can you call the Limbaugh news good?

Straight: Min

Spread: Min

Ovr/Und: Ovr

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia -14.5 Ovr/Und 42

I hate big lines like this one because 1 thing wrong can screw things over but I have to go with the stats Home teams have cover the lines good teams have cover the lines of -7 or higher 11 out of 12; plus, they are coming from the bye healthy and ready to go.

Straight: Phi

Spread: Phi

Ovr/Und: Und

Washington at Carolina -3.5 Ovr/Und 37.5

Washington almost lost a game to the now 0-4 Bucs, we all know they ended the losing streak of the lions and also barely beat the now 0-4 Rams, if a team needs a bye to regroup is this one. Carolina just came from the bye and they need this Win bad they might not make the playoffs but this game is their season.

Straight: Car

Spread: Car

Ovr/Und: Und

Pittsburgh at Detroit 10.5 Ovr/Und 44

If you’re a Steelers fan you have to like your offense scoring 38 points last week and not only see their running game well run, but also see one of their last year’s draft picks that looked like early busts shine; but also, if you are a Steelers fan you have to be worried that San Diego came back and scored 21 points in the 4th and almost took that game. The Lions were doing pretty well against Chicago before Stafford injury, well guess who isn’t playing this week.

Straight: PIT

Spread: PIT

Ovr/Und: OVR

Oakland at New York Giants -15 Ovr/Und 38

Well it looks like Eli will play but I don’t think he should first they play the raiders who not only are playing bad but are filled with injuries, second he will have trouble with his step and will hurt his accuracy, they will win this game they have the talent but it will be closer that it should.

Straight:NYG

Spread: Oak

Ovr/Und: Ovr

Dallas at Kansas City 8.5 Ovr/Und 42.5

Well by now Dallas has shown they can beat bad teams by more than 10 points and lose close games in the final quarter against good teams. They have some key injuries they need to fix so it’s good they have the bye next week plus, they need to find themselves if they want any chance against Atlanta after the bye.

Straight:Dal

Spread:Dal

Ovr/Und:Und

Cleveland at Buffalo -6 Ovr/Und 41

Hmmm I do believe Buffalo will win this game but are they 6 points better than Cleveland? I still can’t believe all the crap Mangini is doing to that team. Go with the Home team

Straight: Buf

Spread: Buf

Ovr/Und: Und

Atlanta at San Francisco -2.5 Ovr/Und 40.5

Just thinking about this 49ers defense going after Ryan makes me shiver. Atlanta doesn’t travel well and haven’t found their running game which took pressure of Ryan believe me they won’t find it this week.

Straight:SF

Spread: SF

Ovr/Und: Ovr

Houston at Arizona -5.5 Ovr/Und 50

Could Arizona really start 0-3 at home this year? I don’t think so at least not after the bye, Houston still have problems at defense and their best passrusher is hurt he will play but I don’t think he will be a huge factor. Give Warren time and he will destroy you.

Straight: Ari

Spread: Ari

Ovr/Und: Und

Jacksonville at Seattle -1.5 Ovr/Und 44

It looks like Hasselbeck will play but with this history with injuries and still not 100% how good will he be. The jaguars are playing better each week it seems that the young kids are finally buying what Del Rio it’s preaching.

Straight: Jac

Spread: Jac

Ovr/Und: Und

New England at Denver 3 Ovr/Und 41

Dallas underestimated this team last week especially after going up 10-0 quickly in the 1st.Brady won’t do the same, these fan base is loud and can mess up the other team but it’s not like Brady hasn’t been in this position before. I do believe the patriots will score some points and I don’t believe Denver has the offense to catch up.

Straight: NE

Spread: NE

Ovr/Und: Und

Indianapolis at Tennessee : 3.5 Ovr/Und 46

Well like I said last week Payton is playing nasty… Tennessee is playing the bad kind of nasty I would love to have better hope but can’t.

Straight:Ind

Spread: Ind

Ovr/Und: Ovr

New York Jets at Miami : 1.5 Ovr/Und 36.5

Miami delivered for me last week big why wouldn’t I take them again at home. One thing the only team that stopped the WildCat last year Rex Ryan and Baltimore so I expect that again this year.

Straight:NYJ

Spread:NYJ

Ovr/Und: Und

Hot Picks (10-14) 41%

Minnesota (league)

Indianapolis (league)

New England (league)

Cincinnati

Dallas

Oakland

[jonahdsage]

Lots of great information here. Might I suggest doing a little proof reading, though? The article gets pretty tough to read.

Thanks for all the time put into the info -- Vegas certainly doesn't agree with me that we're going to see a Bengal Beat down tomorrow.

[HairOnFire]

Don Canibis?

So, watcha smokin' these daze?

[thedon]

Lots of great information here. Might I suggest doing a little proof reading, though? The article gets pretty tough to read.

Thanks for all the time put into the info -- Vegas certainly doesn't agree with me that we're going to see a Bengal Beat down tomorrow.

Thxs for the comments I will do a double check next week