Any chance Andre Smith is signed...ever?

[Kazkal]

While the situatiuon disgusts me as a fan and I don't agree with how it's being handled on either side, I'm still of the mindset that it will eventually get done and when it does, the conversation will change in this regard. People will immediately start talking about how long it's going to take to get him in the lineup and especially if the current starters struggle. I also think once Andre does prove he's ready to get some playing time, he will impress and not take long to actually take the starters spot.

Then again, I was one of the ones who actually wanted to draft him. I'm still not overly concerned and find it odd that some members get sh*t for getting worked up about other things and yet others are already saying this season is a "complete waste" for Andre Smith. That is just foolish even if you don't like the guy for his moobs...

Speaking of Moobs!

My understanding is that he can't work out in person for other teams, so no pro days or private workouts or anything like that, but nothing prevents him from holding workouts for the media, posting videos of workouts, etc. And let's face it, it wouldn't be hard to arrange an "accidental" workout: say Andre takes a vacation to New Orleans, where he just happens to work out in a gym where a couple scouts from the Saints just happen to be jogging on treadmills, etc.

Think PFT mentioned that they could do public workout,can't stop people from coming and watching him run in a public setting.

[Sea Ray]

I think that about covers it...

That covers why MB is who he is but why offer more money a week from now?

[Kazkal]

I think that about covers it...

That covers why MB is who he is but why offer more money a week from now?

But with Incentives and hard to reach ones it will be easier for him to swallow.

[HairOnFire]

Frankly, I think Mike and pumpkin smell blood in the water. First time first round deal for Keels, a player in Smith who really can't afford to sit out a year, and a so-far healthy line with two decent tackles in camp, giving them all the leverage right now.

Bumping myself from the bottom of last page. Just because.

Don't worry, I'm on it.

But let's get the mandatories out of the way first.

I don't like it. In fact, I'd throw the agent a lifeline by offering the kid a backloaded contract filled with ghost money that totaled fifty cents more than DHB got.

But it's not my rodeo.

Anyways, here's the thing. Keel's looked weak last night. And Pumpkie looked rather fetching in her white pant suit. Best, the little lost girl look was gone from her lovely eyes.....which I admit I became captivated by. In fact, Pumpkie looked like someone who would NEVER crumble...unless daddy told her to.

Finally, there was the classic footage of a clock and a closed door....with the hours racing by....before the door opens and we see Pumpkie sweeping Keels out the door to a waiting limo. I swear to you, as I watched it play out I heard in my head..."Time to go, pal. You don't have to go home, but you can't stay here."

[BengalByTheBay]

I still think this gets done in the next 10 days or so, with the Bengals essentially caving and agreeing to money appropriate to the slot. There will be some performance incentive, etc. that will be held onto as a point of pride, but the deal should get done in the slot. In the cosmic question of who's to blame, I don't suppose it really matters. Mike Brown likes to rail against the realities of the business of the sport and he generally has to pay the consequences of that windmill tilting. Here, his #1 arrives late and doesn't crack the starting lineup until week 3 or 4. It is, as they say, what it is....

I agree it gets done but why should Mike Brown cave? I don't see the incentive unless there's an injury on our O-line

Why should he cave, or why will he? I think the deal will be slot-worthy simply because the agent has no where else to go from there. You say there's no pressure on the Bengals, and I say there's no pressure on the player. Neither one of those is completely true. There is pressure on the team because, presumably, they want the guy to play. If not, they look stupider than the vikes a few years back when they ran up to the podium after time expired. Why draft a player if you aren't going to sign him? Although, if there was ever a team to do so, it would certainly be the Bengals. There is also pressure on the player because he wants to start getting paid. However, neither he nor his agent want to look like they took less than what they could've. Also, so far all he's missing is training camp and preseason games, so there's no rush to get in just for that when you're an enormous guy who, to all appearances, doesn't look like the type to volunteer for extra pushups. I'd say the pressure is pretty evenly distributed between the two camps -- resulting in roughly where we are at present. The pressure will get higher on both sides in the next week or so as the season approaches and, I predict, the Bengals will move off their current "not a cent more" spot and the deal will get done. I doubt the Bengals feel like they have no incentive to do a deal until there's an offensive lineman injured. First, Smith is better than Collins and second after an injury then the Bengals would have to panic and cave all at once...not a real beneficial thing to wait for.

[BengalByTheBay]

And Pumpkie looked rather fetching in her white pant suit. Best, the little lost girl look was gone from her lovely eyes.....which I admit I became captivated by.

Oy vey, HOF, really? I mean really? I'm losing respect for you by the second. Perhaps we should start a "would ya?" poll? Maybe, it's just me, but pookie looks like a 12-year old.....boy....to me.

[HairOnFire]

Perhaps we should start a "would ya?" poll?

Just for the record, my answer will always be yes regardless of who is the subject of the poll.

Note/Confession: I once dreamt a sexual fantasy involving Janet Reno and I building a backyard BBQ out of bricks and mortar.

[TJJackson]

Could you add Marge Schott to the scenario, Hair? And maybe Margaret Thatcher, while you're at it?

I'm on a diet and every appetite-quelling image helps

[Pidge]

Man, the sexual fantasies I dream about mainly involve Yulia Tymoshenko, if I'm in MILF mode, or any number of the young strumpets Berlusconi promotes so he can smash their back doors in. Not the likes of Andrea Merkal.

[Sea Ray]

The longer this thing goes the more pressure shifts to Andre Smith to sign. Once he starts getting docked game checks he's losing jack

[HoosierCat]

The longer this thing goes the more pressure shifts to Andre Smith to sign. Once he starts getting docked game checks he's losing jack

Well, its tough to dock a guy when you aren't paying him in the first place.

And I don't see the whole "once the season starts, reduce the offer weekly" thing as realistic. If the starting offer is already viewed as too low, knocking 1/16th off a week isn't going to help. And the longer it goes on, the lower he can go in the draft next year and still make the same.

[Sea Ray]

Well, its tough to dock a guy when you aren't paying him in the first place.

And I don't see the whole "once the season starts, reduce the offer weekly" thing as realistic. If the starting offer is already viewed as too low, knocking 1/16th off a week isn't going to help. And the longer it goes on, the lower he can go in the draft next year and still make the same.

You miss the point. He's not being docked anything until game checks start rolling in. Thus Smith is not losing anything until the regular season starts.

From the team's standpoint he's worth a lot more to them if he signs on Aug 1st than Sept 1st so why pay him more than what you offered Aug 1st? The Bengals' offer should reflect this reality. If I'm Mike Brown I've already taken a hit for not getting him signed by now, I might as well make some money off of it. If Smith sees that the money's going down, not up, he'll be a lot more inclined to sign. This will also serve as a warning to future draftees who dare push MB to Sept.

I am of the opinion that this is a once in a lifetime opportunity for Andre Smith to make a killing. If he disagrees and thinks he can be a top ten pick again next year then I'd encourage him to sit out. But I don't think that's in his future. I think his draft status takes a big hit if he rusts for a year

[Clackwoods]

Just something for Andre to think about if he thinks he is gonna have much success getting in the top 10 again next year after sitting out a year.

Bo Jackson was drafted 1st overall in the 1986 NFL Draft by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs then told Bo that he had to choose between football and baseball...which he signed a baseball contract. Since he did not sign with a team by the 1987 draft, his rights were forfeited by Tampa Bay and his name was thrown back into the draft. The Los Angeles Raiders selected Jackson in the 7th round with the 183rd overall pick.

The situations are a bit different obviously, but a talent as great as Bo Jackson slipped into round 7 so I wouldn't advise him to do that.

[HoosierCat]

You miss the point. He's not being docked anything until game checks start rolling in. Thus Smith is not losing anything until the regular season starts.

No, I'm not missing the point. You can't dock someone you aren't paying.

From the team's standpoint he's worth a lot more to them if he signs on Aug 1st than Sept 1st so why pay him more than what you offered Aug 1st? The Bengals' offer should reflect this reality. I

Yeah, and while it's "reflecting that reality" it also means that he doesn't need to get picked in the top 10, and increasingly lower, to make the same cash next year.

Meanwhile, the Bengals don't get better. They p*ss away their top pick. And somewhere, Al Davis laughs and pencils in another win...

[HairOnFire]

Meanwhile, the Bengals don't get better. They p*ss away their top pick. And somewhere, Al Davis laughs and pencils in another win...

I'm pretty sure they keep the pencils away from Al now....what with the sharp points and all.

[DC_Bengals_Fan]

The situations are a bit different obviously, but a talent as great as Bo Jackson slipped into round 7 so I wouldn't advise him to do that.

The situation is so different as to make the situation completely incomparable. If, prior to the (1987?) draft, Bo Jackson would have said "I'm quitting baseball and want to play football", he'd have gone in the first round. Fact is, he was playing baseball, and the baseball season overlaps the football season. So prior to Bo, it had never occurred to anyone, apparently, that you could work it out and do both.

Enter a pre-senile Al Davis who grabs him basically for free, and realizes that 3/4 of a year of Bo is better than pretty much anyone else out there, and the rest is history. But to suggest that this situation reflects on Andre is a little disingenuous.

A more comparable situation? Mike Williams. He didn't sit out due to a contract dispute, but because of the retarded courts. And yes, I know that he got drafted by Matt Millen about 5 picks too high. But he still would have gone mid-first. And yes, I know it didn't work out well for him, but that had nothing to do with the layoff. Having had Mike Williams as the example will hurt Andre if he re-enters, but it still shows that he's not going in the 7th round if he re-enters. That's just nuts.

Look at it as handicapping - what odds would I give on a #1-overall quality pick still being good a year later? 20%? 50%? 90%? That dictates where he should go by simply asking how low of a pick has that fractional value of a high-first. Based on that, I think that it's absolutely guaranteed that a team would take him no lower than #20, assuming he gets in decent shape. Why? There's two reasons: 1) chances he can still play football in a year is high, and 2) It's a good risk, because there's a very good chance some team gets a #1-overall quality pick *at the salary of the 20th spot in the draft*, meaning there's a high chance of a helluva bargain.

I know I'm the only one who thinks he'd go 1st round, but I'd bet on it. If I'm a GM, who would I rather have at #20: the usual picked-over players that are still there at #20, or a 50/50 (at worst) chance at the cheapest franchise tackle you'll ever find? I'll roll those dice.

[generaldreedle]

The situations are a bit different obviously, but a talent as great as Bo Jackson slipped into round 7 so I wouldn't advise him to do that.

The situation is so different as to make the situation completely incomparable. If, prior to the (1987?) draft, Bo Jackson would have said "I'm quitting baseball and want to play football", he'd have gone in the first round. Fact is, he was playing baseball, and the baseball season overlaps the football season. So prior to Bo, it had never occurred to anyone, apparently, that you could work it out and do both.

Enter a pre-senile Al Davis who grabs him basically for free, and realizes that 3/4 of a year of Bo is better than pretty much anyone else out there, and the rest is history. But to suggest that this situation reflects on Andre is a little disingenuous.

A more comparable situation? Mike Williams. He didn't sit out due to a contract dispute, but because of the retarded courts. And yes, I know that he got drafted by Matt Millen about 5 picks too high. But he still would have gone mid-first. And yes, I know it didn't work out well for him, but that had nothing to do with the layoff. Having had Mike Williams as the example will hurt Andre if he re-enters, but it still shows that he's not going in the 7th round if he re-enters. That's just nuts.

Look at it as handicapping - what odds would I give on a #1-overall quality pick still being good a year later? 20%? 50%? 90%? That dictates where he should go by simply asking how low of a pick has that fractional value of a high-first. Based on that, I think that it's absolutely guaranteed that a team would take him no lower than #20, assuming he gets in decent shape. Why? There's two reasons: 1) chances he can still play football in a year is high, and 2) It's a good risk, because there's a very good chance some team gets a #1-overall quality pick *at the salary of the 20th spot in the draft*, meaning there's a high chance of a helluva bargain.

I know I'm the only one who thinks he'd go 1st round, but I'd bet on it. If I'm a GM, who would I rather have at #20: the usual picked-over players that are still there at #20, or a 50/50 (at worst) chance at the cheapest franchise tackle you'll ever find? I'll roll those dice.

I agree with you. If he can stay away from drive-thrus, and stays off of a police blotter, I can see him going in the top 20 next year.

[mgilgris]

2 Questions:

1) Must the bengals at some time release the rights to Smith if he does not sign for the rest of the year?

2) If the bengals are forced to release his rights, is there any compensation for releasing Smith to be drafted in the upcoming drafts

This of course will probably not ever happen, but I wondered if it did what the implications would be.

[Kazkal]

1) Must the bengals at some time release the rights to Smith if he does not sign for the rest of the year?

2) If the bengals are forced to release his rights, is there any compensation for releasing Smith to be drafted in the upcoming drafts

1.)You lose rights to him during the next draft

2.)You get nothing,You simply flush the pick down the toilet.

[HairOnFire]

Put me on the boat with SeaRay because I think his speculation comes closest. Granted, Smith could take plenty of steps to salvage whatever might be left of his reputation, but a year long holdout is the only thing most GM's will see when evaluating Smith.

[TJJackson]

A lot of GMs we see him as untouchable next year based on any of several concerns: poor fitness, game rust, lack of good basic judgement, character, or even agent. Too great a risk for any one (or combination) of those reasons.

His best chance to make lemonade from lemons right now is to

1)fire his agent

then

2) fly alone to Cincinnati

then

3) Walk into Katie's office and offer to sign the same contract as last year's 6 (with incentives adjusted to measurables of an OL rather than a DE/OLB, obviously) plus 1 or 2 percent

then

4) suck it up for the 4-6 years to become a UFA

I just don't think he has a level enough head on his shoulders to see that's his best remaining option, and no, I dont think the OL play vs the rams will change things much, since SoaG makes his millions no matter how good the OL plays

[COB]

Alvin Keels' viewpoint must be considered in this equation. For the sake of his own reputation, and to save face in the agent world, he probably feels compelled to advise Andre to hold out and reenter the draft.

But I don't think he'll do that. He signs the offer, and makes what for his commission? Has to be close to a million just off the signing bonus and the first year's salary, which he'll have collected by early next year.

Alvin has to know that if he advises him to hold out, there is a good chance Andre will fire him before next year. Lots of little birds will be whispering in his ear, from other agents to family members saying get someone who can get something done this time. Collect close to 2 million over the life of the contract you sign now, or hold your guy out and potentially get nothing.

Keels and Andre are in a poker game without a hole card. They have nothing to play at this point. Lots of advantages to being a high draft pick in the NFL - the signing bonus, the guaranteed money in the contract, the women, playing a game for a living, etc. But in exchange for those advantages their union has seen fit to forfeit one privilege for its new members, that being the right to shop your services around to anyone you want.

Keels and Smith are acting like that right hasn't been forfeited.

Reenter the draft with greatly reduced status, and guess what? You still only get to negotiate with one party. And there is no guarantee that team will be any more accomodating than the Bengals.

[Sea Ray]

Even if you are of the opinion that he'll be a 1st rd pick next year, he still loses by sitting out because he's lost a whole year off of his NFL career. Just ask Levi Jones how short an NFL career can be.

He loses bigtime.

My bet is he'll sign but very little of it will be guaranteed compared to those drafted around him. He'll have to prove himself and quickly.

[HairOnFire]

Alvin has to know that if he advises him to hold out, there is a good chance Andre will fire him before next year.

Perhaps. Then again, with each mistake that's been made they've proven the strength of their relationship.

[DC_Bengals_Fan]

Put me on the boat with SeaRay because I think his speculation comes closest. Granted, Smith could take plenty of steps to salvage whatever might be left of his reputation, but a year long holdout is the only thing most GM's will see when evaluating Smith.

Were it with another team, sure. But I think he'll get the time-honored "Bengals benefit of the doubt". I think your average GM sees the situation for what it is, and many wouldn't hold it against him for not taking 20% below market value.

I'll grant that he'd get a lot more benefit of the doubt had he not flaked out at the combine. However, this is where a very savvy agent (like, say, Rosenwhore) would massage the PR on this one. If Rosenhaus were his agent, he'd spend the next year getting Andre in shape and having him volunteer 20 hours a week for charities and being a generally fantastic guy. I think there's a compelling "Andre Smith as victim" angle to be played, and the right agent would get maximum mileage out of it. I think the right PR would have teams falling over themselves to take this guy. I really do.

Do recall, Drew Rosenhaus got an RB rehabbing a torn ACL taken in the 1st round. If he can do that, doing the same for a healthy LT who's missed a year due to an incompetent front office is nothing.

Question is, of course, is Alvin Keels the right agent to get it done?