Bengals Draft Guru Featured on NFL Draft Guys.com

[WretchedOne]

I am now part of a special contribution to NFLdraftguys.com.

I have submitted my take on who and the Bengals should select and why in the 1st round of the 2007 draft.

BDG on NFLDG:

http://www.nfldraftguys.com/features/OTC_C..._Mock_Draft.php

BDG.com

http://www.bengalsdraftguru.com

Check them both out!!!!!!!!!

[HoosierCat]

Excepting that Olsen isn't particularly strong on third-down conversions, it's about as convincing a case as can be made for him.

Really, I think it comes down to two things. First, how the defensive players come off the board. The CB class seems weak, likely to yield several average-to-good players but no real studs. The top two safeties and DTs ought to be gone by 18. There's talk Patrick Willis may now go in the top 10, and I'm not sure there's a big dropoff between what we could get at LB at 18 versus in the second. In short, there may not be much in the way of an immediate impact defender available, in which case offesne starts to make more sense.

Second, what's really their thinking regarding Deltha, Stacy and Justin? We know there have been trade talks/offers in Deltha and Stacy's cases. And moving Justin has to be attractive if only from a cap point of view. If they give him a long-term deal they chew up ~$7m/year for the next few years, which keeps them in the box they were in this year. OTOH if you can get some value for him, then you could target a guy like Carriker in round 1. Trades involving Deltha or Stacy could bring us some later day one picks, but obviously Deltha going makes corner a much higher priority early on; they'd probably risk waiting to day 2 to pluck a replacement for Stacey.

Anyhow, draft day could get interesting...

[schweinhart]

I'd say if you're after more interested in nuts and bolts than plastic, check out the prospect interviews at:

http://www.thefootballexpert.com/nfl%20draft.html

And when it comes to mock draft databases, their's is more extensive and it is ranked with the wheat separated from the chaff:

http://www.thefootballexpert.com/mockdraftdatabase.html

Of course it's hardly as entertaining as the CB bait-and-switch conspiracy theory.

[HoosierCat]

Of course it's hardly as entertaining as the CB bait-and-switch conspiracy theory.

Yeah, I think the team's interest in a corner in round one is real. The question is how they stack them up. Do they consider Revis and Hall and Houston (and perhaps Ross) all as equally worthy of No. 18 -- or are just one or two of them guys they are serious about? Wretched may be right that their interest in Revis is a smokescreen, but it may just be masking a different corner they regard more highly.

[schweinhart]

Smokescreen for Revis? I'd say it'd be closer to the truth that Marv and the Brown Clan are headed to the Old Man's grave tonight to conjure up some supernatural help for Revis lasting until 18. Revis has been a nationwide tour with the earliest pick being the Vikes at #7. If there's any consistency taking shape on team boards who the #1 CB is, it's probably going in Revis' favor. So if the Bengals are sending out smoke signals on this one, they're wasting their time.

Timmons, Beason and Ginn look like the ones they've maybe staged more interest in than they actually have. But the need at those positions is legit enough, much more so than TE and especially a dog like Greg Olsen.

[WretchedOne]

Excepting that Olsen isn't particularly strong on third-down conversions, it's about as convincing a case as can be made for him.

Maybe getting out of the "The U" atmosphere will help him get back on his game along with Carson Palmer throwing darts to him, hopefully he can become a nice threat on 3rd down.

Really, I think it comes down to two things. First, how the defensive players come off the board. The CB class seems weak, likely to yield several average-to-good players but no real studs. The top two safeties and DTs ought to be gone by 18. There's talk Patrick Willis may now go in the top 10, and I'm not sure there's a big dropoff between what we could get at LB at 18 versus in the second. In short, there may not be much in the way of an immediate impact defender available, in which case offesne starts to make more sense.

I totally agree and this is exactly how I can see the Bengals taking Greg. I think if Amobi and Greg are both on the board, it will be Amobi, but if he's gone and Greg is there, Greg all the way. The CB class IS weak and I'm not a believer in the need for a day one pick at the position either. If both players are off the board, I see a trade down and really think a LB like Lawrence Timmons becomes very likely. Take a year to learn behind Landon and then Landon leaves via FA in 08, with Timmons taking over at WSLB. Timmons would spell doom for Odell Thurman's return.

Second, what's really their thinking regarding Deltha, Stacy and Justin? We know there have been trade talks/offers in Deltha and Stacy's cases. And moving Justin has to be attractive if only from a cap point of view. If they give him a long-term deal they chew up ~$7m/year for the next few years, which keeps them in the box they were in this year. OTOH if you can get some value for him, then you could target a guy like Carriker in round 1. Trades involving Deltha or Stacy could bring us some later day one picks, but obviously Deltha going makes corner a much higher priority early on; they'd probably risk waiting to day 2 to pluck a replacement for Stacey.

All the trade talk about Deltha and I see Justin being the player they are more willing to deal. The timing of that Frostee article is a little odd. We'll see how it all play out, not much longer.

Anyhow, draft day could get interesting...

Very much indeed.

...................................

[schweinhart]

And moving Justin has to be attractive if only from a cap point of view. If they give him a long-term deal they chew up ~$7m/year for the next few years, which keeps them in the box they were in this year. OTOH if you can get some value for him, then you could target a guy like Carriker in round 1.

There's no reason to believe Smith fits into the longer term plan for the Bengals with the front-end franchise money Jumpy got. Smith had his crack on the left side and pretty much demonstrated he's best suited as both a run defender and pass rusher in less trash. So I doubt they'd sign him long-term to chore LDE, where a replacement should be easier to find at least against the run.

They don't need to drop a 1st round pick on a truer 3-4 DE to get what they need there. If they did, I'd rather see them target Jamaal Anderson and not Carriker, who regularly got beat down against decent comp at Nebraska and will get even more manhandled in the NFL.

But if the intent all along was to trade Smith to trade up in the 1st, the Rams would probably be the most logical choice but I'd say the Bengals would be better off waiting to see who drops down than charging up to grab somebody at the cost of compounding their problems on defense for the immediate future. Only question then would be if Smith is willing to play on a 1-year contract.

[chrishcovga]

Don't like Greg Olsen. I would prefer to take Zack Miller or Matt Spaeth. They're more complete. They block, they catch, both are a lot bigger and stronger as well. Considering our offense, they'd be a better fit than trying to have a guy who's not even as talented as Winslow jr. or Shockey was coming out of the same school.

Olsen is overrated.

[HoosierCat]

Smokescreen for Revis? I'd say it'd be closer to the truth that Marv and the Brown Clan are headed to the Old Man's grave tonight to conjure up some supernatural help for Revis lasting until 18. Revis has been a nationwide tour with the earliest pick being the Vikes at #7. If there's any consistency taking shape on team boards who the #1 CB is, it's probably going in Revis' favor. So if the Bengals are sending out smoke signals on this one, they're wasting their time.

That's just it -- there is no consistency at corner. It's been all over the board since day 1. Hall was the only guy up high to begin with; Revis, Houston and most recently Ross have all risen more because of suff they did in shorts and the weak CB class than anything else. The latest guy to comment on it was Peter King:

6. Darrelle Revis, Leon Hall. Leon Hall, Darrelle Revis. Pick a corner, any corner. I bet NFL teams would be 17-15 in some order or 16-16 if you asked which corner they had rated higher, Pitts' Revis or Michigan's Hall. Opening-day 2007: Hall's your man. Reliable, big-game-tested. Opening-day 2009: Maybe Revis, who's slightly bigger with a little more potential. They are so similar, in fact, that Hall was .01 faster in dashing 10 yards (1.45 to 1.46) and Revis .01 faster in the 40- (4.38 to 4.39).

The team may, in fact, be praying over the Old Man's grave for Hall to still be here. Or they may not be enamoured of either, but are hoping both go above them so that the chances of a player they do like falling to them increase.

[schweinhart]

No question the top corners got warts and the top end looks less appealing than it did to begin with. But some of that would depend on where folks had Revis to begin with. Based on his performance as a sophomore, I had him as the 1st rated corner and a Top 10 pick to start with. The wart with him is that nobody threw at him this year, which is the best kind of wart to have compared to the others. The only question speedwise with him was did he have man coverage speed to match his skills or would he be looked at as more of a zone, cover 2 corner in the NFL. I think he answered that.

The question left in teams minds would be would Revis get beaten as much as Hall and Ross did if he had been thrown at more. I think they'll backtrack a year and conclude that the answer is no. But they'll still have to wonder and hopefully wonder enough for Revis to fall to the Bengals spot for them to at least have the op to make a choice.

The kicker will be Chris Houston. No other corner in this draft has displayed the man coverage skills he has and that could trump all else for the right team.

[hrod382]

We will not take Olsen, seems pretty obvious to me. Makes us even more one dimensional, Marvins smart... He realizes this.